CFB Forecast: Recapping the year that was
The victor? Yours truly. But there are always lessons to be learned in this game.
We had a fun season picking games. We won some, we lost some, we made plenty of jokes at each other’s expenses along the way.
Our friend Brad Evans of The Gaming Juice came up with the idea back in the summer for The Inside Zone to collaborate with him and have a fun contest with Ben Wittenstein, Nate Jacobson and me. We called it CFB Forecast.
No real prizes went around. (Unfortunately, for yours truly.) No real punishment, either. (Lucky you, Ben.)
But with the season in the rearview mirror, it’s time to look back at how we did in each category.
Game of the Week:
Fortuna: 8-7
Wittenstein: 6-9
Jacobson: 6-9
We all had our moments here. But what’s gambling without sharing in the losses together? Go back and read our Week 4 writeup (Illinois-Indiana) if you really want a good laugh.
Barking Dog:
Wittenstein: 6-8
Fortuna: 5-9
Jacobson: 4-10
Not to harp on the Week 4 that was, but c’mon, Miami-Ohio, you really hurt me here! I took the RedHawks as a small dog (+110) to beat UNLV. They lost their starting QB in the first half, then blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead, falling at home to the Rebels and ultimately costing me a chance to tie Ben for the lead in this category. Then again, I would have been nowhere near the lead here if I hadn’t faded Oregon State so often. I went 2-0 picking against the Beavers when they were favorites. I also correctly picked them to get blown out by Washington State in the finale as part of the below category, small-conference cash. Hopefully for the Beavs’ sake, JaMarcus Shephard will be a breath of fresh air in Corvallis.
Small Conference Cash
Fortuna: 10-4
Jacobson: 7-7
Wittenstein: 3-11
The money is still green at the Group of 5 level, and my homework here ended up paying off in big fashion. (Ben’s? Not so much.) I rode San Diego State to a 3-0 record, as the Aztecs were continuously slept on late in the season. I went 3-1 picking MAC games in this category as well … with not a single one of those picks coming during midweek MACtion games. (Restraint is a wonderful gift.)
Parlay Play
Fortuna: 6-8
Wittenstein: 5-9
Jacobson: 4-10
This category is a free-for-all, which makes it challenging. Want to see a bad beat? In Week 2 I parlayed Texas Tech -48.5 vs. Kent State and BYU -20.5 vs. Stanford … and lost because Texas Tech won by only 48. Nate had the worst record but had some of the biggest hits, including a remarkable two-week stretch early in the season in which he hit a +267 and a +434. He hit on a +238 in Week 5 and a +235 in Week 12 as well.
Sledgehammer Special
Fortuna: 9-5
Wittenstein: 7-7
Jacobson: 7-7
Sometimes the worst (and best) bets are the ones you don’t make. In Week 2, I initially had Army +17 at Kansas State. Text evidence shows that I asked Brad Evans to change that bet to ULM +37.5 at Alabama. Whoops. My luck turned shortly afterward, however, winning seven straight in this category before suffering a really bad beat in the UVA-Cal game in Week 10. I am happy to report that none of us finished below .500 in this category, which in theory should be the easiest.
Other one-off categories …
Conference Championship Weekend
Wittenstein 3-2
Jacobson 3-2
Fortuna 2-3
Jacobson 6-2
Wittenstein 5-3
Fortuna 4-4
Wittenstein 1-0
Jacobson 1-0
Fortuna 0-1
TOTAL
Fortuna: 44-41
Jacobson: 38-47
Wittenstein: 36-49
Any lessons here? The digger you deep, the more likely you are to succeed. But don’t overthink yourself. (Gee, thanks Matt.)
Player props are controversial, but they are usually pretty telling. I went 7-4 picking them this season. As for the overconfident part: I started off 4-0 when picking team, half or quarter props, but I dropped my last four in that category to finish 4-4. I lost Texas Tech -6.5 1H against BYU in the Big 12 title game by half a point. And I lost Indiana -0.5 in the fourth quarter of the national title game because Miami scored on the first play of the fourth quarter, rather than the last play of the third quarter.
Them’s the breaks. This is all supposed to be fun. And we sure had a lot of fun this season.
Thanks for following along.
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