CFB Forecast Week 2: Behemoth SEC vs. Big Ten stakes
A couple of close (and not so close, UNC) losses last week won't stop us!
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 1 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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GAME OF THE WEEK -- MICHIGAN AT OKLAHOMA
Fortuna - Oklahoma -3 1H, (-110, Bet365) - I think Oklahoma wins, but the game line is a little high for my taste in a contest that will probably be low-scoring. So give me John Mateer and Co. to jump out to an early lead against the Wolverines. I love Bryce Underwood, but this is a tough test for his second career college game. I love both defenses, but I think the Sooners’ offense will be the difference at home in primetime
Wittenstein - Under 45.5, (-105, FanDuel) - We’ve got Brent Venables versus a Big Ten team that loves running the ball. Oklahoma: welcome to Big Ten football. This game will be defined by three yards and a cloud of dust. Oklahoma’s hard-nosed defense returns six starters from a unit that ranked 33rd in opponent points per play last year. For Michigan’s part, we know Sherrone Moore loves to run the ball — the Wolverines ranked 15th in rush play percentage in 2024 — and they’re coming off a 200+ yard rushing game in Week 1. Lots of offense on the ground, lots of defensive experience and talent. Gimme a low-scoring game in Norman.
Jacobson - Michigan team total under 20.5, (-118, BetMGM) - I think Michigan true freshman QB Bryce Underwood has a bright future, but this is a brutal spot for just his second start. A night game in Norman is tough enough and Oklahoma's defense led by a defensive-minded head coach in Brent Venables adds to that challenge. I don’t trust Michigan’s receivers to consistently win matchups and I expect the Wolverines to struggle to put points on the board.
Season record: 4-2, +1.80 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - Duke ML (+132, BallyBet) - I love small home underdogs, especially in swing games like this one. Both teams won 10 games last season and carry a ton of momentum into 2025. Both teams are coming off weeknight wins over FCS teams. And though Illinois looked better than Duke did in the openers, don’t overreact to Week 1, the way this line apparently is. Give me Darian Mensah and the Blue Devils in Durham.
Wittenstein - UNLV ML, (+128, Circa) - After Nico Iamaleava’s Week 1 showing, my confidence in this Bruins team is lower than Bill Belichick’s approval rating in Chapel Hill. 136 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT just isn’t gonna cut it week in and week out. Now going on the road, UCLA takes on a UNLV team that’s playing in its third game of the season and has scored 38 points in both contests. Iamaleava’s lack of explosive consistency could be what sinks this Bruins offense as they try to keep up with the scoring in the desert.
Jacobson - Baylor ML (+110, BetMGM) - Baylor would’ve been my best bet at +3 or better, so I wanted to include them in this article in some way. Their Friday night home loss to Auburn doesn’t change my outlook as I expected Auburn to improve and a few key sequences swung against Baylor that could’ve flipped the result. On the other side, SMU is a team I’m looking to fade after last year’s surprise CFP run. They return plenty of production, but they won’t sneak up on anyone this season. I’ll take Sawyer Robertson to outplay Kevin Jennings and the Bears to grab the win in Dallas on Saturday.
Season record: 1-2-0, -0.50 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - Northern Illinois +17.5, (-120, FanDuel) - Sure, NIU struggled at home last week against an FCS team. But these Power 4 games are the type of games this program gets up for. They call them “Boneyard” games for a reason, and NIU’s history is evident of just how high these Huskies can punch above their own weight. Ask Notre Dame. Or Nebraska. Or, if you really want to go back in time, Alabama. A short turnaround at Maryland sets up perfectly for a closer-than-expected contest. Yes, the Terps dominated FAU last week, but that was in Zach Kittley’s first game as a head coach. And it has resulted in an inflated line that has some value for Huskies backers.
Wittenstein - Oregon State ML, (-145, Caesars) - Oh boy, this a disgusting bet. After being one of Week 1’s “hotter” teams, Oregon State started its 2025 campaign getting manhandled at home. Now back at home against facing a weaker Fresno State team, the Beavers should catch a much-needed breather. The Bulldogs, only 1.5-point favorites, demolished Georgia Southern in Week 1, racking up 527 yards and 42 points. In Week 2, though, they might be slapped across the face with our dear friend Regression. Oregon State has its issues, but they’ll be a tougher opponent — especially at home. And if the defense can adjust enough, they might be able to get Fresno State to turn the ball over three times like in their game last week. So after getting punched in the mouth in Week 1, the Beavs are primed to hit back in Week 2.
Jacobson - UConn +6.5, (-105, BetMGM) - This is a bet against Syracuse, who is a team I expect to take a major step back in Fran Brown’s second season. Everything broke right for the Orange in last year’s 9–3 regular season, so regression was already likely and the roster was further hit in the transfer portal with WR Trebor Pena heading to Penn State and DL Maraad Watson joining Texas’ loaded defense. After a rough opener against Tennessee, I can see Jim Mora Jr. 's upstart UConn squad pulling the upset in this former Big East clash. The point spread has come down through the key number of 7, so I’d suggest waiting to see if you can get a +7 on the Huskies.
Season record: 1-2, -0.83 units
Fortuna - 2-leg: Texas Tech -48.5, BYU -20.5, (+264, BetMGM) - Can we call this the “Not A Damn Chance” parlay? Because that’s how I feel about these dogs. TTU plays Kent State, which won’t win another game this year. And BYU plays Stanford, which might not win a game at all this year. I’m not sure you could make lines big enough against either of these teams. That BYU line seems especially low.
Wittenstein - 2-leg: Vanderbilt ML, NC State ML, (+245, DraftKings) - The stock in Vandy QB Diego Pavia only continues to be in “buy, buy, buy!” mode, and a road game to offensively challenged Virginia Tech won’t stop that. The Wolfpack’s rising offensive talent (plus a helpful home crowd) give them a win against Virginia.
Jacobson - 2-leg: Iowa +3.5, Mississippi State ML (+434, DraftKings) - Two potential bets that just missed the cut in this article: I’ll take the points with Iowa in a game with a low total against Iowa State and I’ll also take a shot on Mississippi State to avenge last year’s loss to Arizona State.
Season record: 2-1, +2.66 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - ULM +37.5, (-105, BetMGM) - Bryant Vincent is one of the best G5 coaches in the country. He will try to shorten the game against a Bama team that appears to be on the brink of a free fall after last week (coupled with the end of last season). Let’s not forget: Nick Saban lost to ULM in his first season in Tuscaloosa. The Warhawks won’t pull off the upset this time, but they’ll take advantage of the tense Bryant-Denny Stadium environment and put a mild scare into the Crimson Tide.
Wittenstein - Kansas State -17, (-110, Caesars) - After two rough weeks, it’s finally time to get on the Wildcats’ bandwagon. There’s no sugarcoating, Week 0 in Ireland was a disaster. Then KSU had to fly home and shake off jet lag before playing again just days later. So it was no shock they only beat FCS North Dakota by three points in a game the Bison had all offseason to prepare for. Now, KSU gets a normal week of prep and stays home to face an abysmal Army team that just lost in OT to Tarleton State. This is the get-right game of all get-right games. It’s time to grab a deflated line for KSU.
Jacobson - Kansas-Missouri under 51, (-110, Caesars) - I think the betting market hasn’t fully accounted for Missouri’s identity this season which is a run-heavy offense and strong defense. Penn State transfer QB Beau Pribula looked sharp in his Tigers debut last Thursday, but that came against Central Arkansas. Mizzou returns plenty of production on defense and the addition of transfer RB Ahmad Hardy, paired with Pribula’s legs, will reshape how the Tigers operate on offense. Kansas has already played two games, holding Fresno State and Wagner to just seven points apiece. While Wagner doesn’t tell us much, the Fresno State result looks better after the Bulldogs put up 42 on Georgia Southern in Week 2. With the Border War renewed for the first time since 2011, I expect a physical, low-scoring rock fight in Columbia.
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Season record: 3-3, +0.20 units