CFB Forecast Week 9: All eyes on the Music City
Can Vanderbilt keep it rolling? Can we keep it rolling?
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 9 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
Visit The Gaming Juice, founded by Brad Evans, here.
GAME OF THE WEEK -- Missouri at Vanderbilt
Fortuna - Vanderbilt -2.5 (-115, consensus): Missouri’s postgame win expectancy against Alabama, per Bill Connelly, was 74 percent. The Tigers lost. Their postgame win expectancy at Auburn was 26.4 percent. They won. That’s life in the SEC. But has Mizzou really been that tested this season? The program is coming off its first road game all season, for crying out loud. Vanderbilt has seen it all through its first seven games, losing only at Alabama in a game in which its star QB committed two uncharacteristic turnovers in the red zone. This is a good team, one that was matter-of-fact in its victory over LSU last week. These Tigers are better than those Tigers offensively, but neither is as good as the Commodores on that side of the ball. SEC teams are 18-11 at home in conference games. Mizzou has been responsible for two of those 11, as both a winner and a loser. It won’t be responsible for a third. Take the ’Dores to cover. (If hesitant about the spread, the ML is as low as -138 on FanDuel.)
Wittenstein - Vanderbilt TT under 27.5 (-113, BetRivers): I want to preface this by saying if there are no Diego Pavia supporters left on Earth, then I have passed away. I love the guy; have loved him since his New Mexico State days, but he’s going to struggle with this Mizzou defense. The Tigers are top-10 in defensive success rate, per CFBGraphs. They also are one of the best in the nation at preventing quality drives and top-50 in preventing scramble yards. Pavia’s famous improv ability might not be as effective against this Mizzou team, so getting to four TDs could be too big of an ask.
Jacobson - Under 52.5 (-110, FanDuel): I wouldn’t have expected this matchup to get the “game of the week” treatment before the season, but both teams enter with legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations deep into October. Over the last two weeks, Missouri’s offense has struggled as the competition level has increased, facing Alabama and an Auburn defense that isn’t to blame for its current four-game losing streak. QB Beau Pribula has had some rough moments and RB Ahmad Hardy has been held in check as defenses load up to stop the Tigers’ ground game. Vanderbilt has been one of the surprises of the season, led by QB Diego Pavia, who’s a dangerous runner. However, the strength of Missouri’s team is its front-seven, and I expect them to contain Pavia on the ground, making this a lower-scoring game.
Season record: 12-15, -4.20 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - Purdue (+110, ESPNBet): Purdue had a postgame win expectancy at Minnesota two weeks ago of 74.1 percent, per Bill Connelly. The Boilers lost, and the Gophers then looked dominant six days later in a win over Nebraska. This Purdue team is much improved in Year 1 of the Barry Odom Era, but it just can’t get out of its own way, ranking 134th out of 136 FBS teams in turnover margin (-1.57). It seems ridiculous to think that this program won’t get a win in Big Ten play, but with remaining games at Michigan, vs. Ohio State, at Washington and vs. Indiana, that’s the reality the Boilers are staring at beyond this weekend. Thankfully, the Rutgers team they are facing Saturday is winless against Power Four competition as well. Look for Purdue to spring the minor upset at home.
Wittenstein - Ole Miss ML (+180, DraftKings): Lane Kiffin bounce-back game, anyone? Before the loss to Georgia, in which they simply got beat by a great second-half team, the Rebels had been rolling — scoring 24 or more points in every game, steamrolling opponents, and even beating some decent teams. I can see this being the game they get back on track with. Sure, Oklahoma’s defense is tough, but Ole Miss seems to have found a system that’s unguardable at times. It’s really an unstoppable force meets an immovable object with this one, so I’ll lean with what I think is the better team on the road.
Jacobson - Wake Forest ML (+140, BetMGM): Wake Forest entered the season with low expectations but a potentially bright future after hiring Jake Dickert away from Washington State. It looked like it might be a long year after a narrow 10-9 win over Kennesaw State in Week 1, but the Demon Deacons have quickly turned things around with an overtime loss to now–No. 7 Georgia Tech followed by back-to-back wins over Virginia Tech and Oregon State. Coming off a bye week, Wake Forest hosts SMU in what will be the Mustangs’ second straight road game. Last week, SMU upset Clemson in a game that saw major line movement — from +10 to +3.5 — after Tigers QB Cade Klubnik was ruled out. This isn’t the same SMU team that made the College Football Playoff last season, and it’s in a tough situational spot facing a rested and rejuvenated Wake Forest squad.
Season record: 8-15-0, -0.20 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - Bowling Green -7 (-110, Caesars): Kent State has punched above its weight this season, already winning two games. It lost to Buffalo by only three, it smoked UMass and it actually jumped out to a 10-0 lead last week against Toledo before crashing back to Earth in a 45-10 loss. Here’s guessing the Golden Flashes stay there. Eddie George’s BGSU team has had its ups and downs this season, but it might get QB Drew Pyne (leg) back this weekend. Even if Pyne can’t go, reserve Lucian Anderson has added the run threat from the position, something Kent State and its 130th-ranked run defense will have trouble slowing down.
Wittenstein - Colorado State +5.5 (-113, BetRivers): We’re backing the trend of following teams who’ve fired head coaches. Jay Norvell was relieved of his duties this past week, and the Rams’ next game couldn’t have come against a better opponent. Wyoming has simply been bad this season. That’s not to say CSU is better, but we’ve seen teams have a slight pep in their step the week after firing a head coach. A rejuvenated CSU squad could have a good shot to come into Laramie and upset the Cowboys, so I’ll happily take 5.5 points.
Jacobson - Toledo +2.5 (-110, FanDuel): These two teams appear to be heading in opposite directions, but I think the line has overreacted based on recent results. Toledo entered the season with high expectations but has dropped two games as double-digit favorites to Western Michigan and Bowling Green. Unfortunately for Rockets fans, losing outright as a big favorite has become a trend under head coach Jason Candle. Meanwhile, Washington State is coming off two long road trips where it nearly shocked Ole Miss as a 33-point underdog in a 24-21 loss, then had Virginia on the ropes as a 16-point dog before falling 22-20. Despite the improved play from the Cougars, this is a tricky spot after back-to-back emotional losses and all that travel. The Rockets now finds themselves in an underdog role that suits them better and maybe a trip out West to Pullman is what Candle’s team needs to get its season back on track.
Season record: 12-12, -1.14 units
PARLAY PLAY (2-3 legs)
Fortuna - 2-leg: Navy -14/Oklahoma ML (+167, BetRivers): I had to jump on this Navy line when I saw it, as this offense has been unstoppable so far this season, ranking 14th nationally at 472.7 yards per game. (Yes, that includes the passing offense.) FAU, meanwhile, has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country, ranking 100th in total D, 111th in rushing D and 128th in scoring D. Pair this with an Oklahoma team that has played its tail off defensively and is going against an Ole Miss squad coming off a deflating fourth quarter at Georgia. I like the Sooners to win outright, even if the pregame line itself gives me a little bit of pause.
Wittenstein - 2-Leg: IU 1H -13.5/Iowa State ML (+197, FanDuel): Without trying to be too biased, I think IU clobbers the Bruins to start this game. UCLA has had its fun the last three games, but IU is on a mission and UCLA simply won’t get in the way of that. Iowa State, as Nate mentions below, is in a great spot this week against a likely tired BYU team. The Cyclones should win, perhaps even handily.
Jacobson - 2-leg: Baylor +4.5, Houston +7.5 (+236, FanDuel): These are two other sides I considered in one of the sections for this article, so I’ll pair these Texas schools together and also recommend betting each individually against the spread.
Season record: 10-17, +4.97 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - Wisconsin O 3.5 TT (-105, Fanatics): The Badgers have scored 34 points this season against Power 4 competition. Not good. They have been shut out in back-to-back games. Also not good. They travel to Oregon, which has the nation’s No. 8 scoring defense (14.4 ppg). OK, this is really not good. But hell, this team total is too tasty to pass up. (ESPNBet also had over 6.5 at even money at the time of this writing.) I know it’s been rough in Madison, and I know that the Luke Fickell era is likely nearing its end. But I just can’t fathom a Big Ten team going a third straight game without scoring a touchdown (or at least making two field goals). I actually won a bet last week on Wisconsin to not score a touchdown against Ohio State. But I can’t imagine that happening yet again. I’ll take the risk here with the visitors. It should be a blowout, but it won’t be a goose egg, for once.
Wittenstein - Mississippi State +7.5 (-120, Hard Rock): I tell almost anyone who will listen that Mississippi State is a hard-nosed football team. I know it’s an old-school saying, but there’s no better way to describe the Bulldogs — they just fight. They’ve covered four of their last five games, with two as underdogs. They took Florida down to the wire on the road and came within a possession of Tennessee. Now, after two straight road games, the Bulldogs come home to face a so-so Texas squad. I think their top-10 rushing game will give the Longhorns some issues, and with the home crowd behind them, I think they keep this one close.
Jacobson - Iowa State ML (-142, FanDuel): This is one of my favorite bets of the season and a perfect opportunity to fade 7-0 BYU. The Cougars are playing for the sixth straight week and are coming off an emotional rivalry win over Utah. Now they travel to Ames to face an Iowa State team that was overvalued earlier this month at 5-0, but is now being priced more accurately after back-to-back road losses to Cincinnati and Colorado. The Cyclones are also coming off a much-needed bye to regroup and get healthy. Before the Utah win, BYU didn’t have many impressive victories and that game itself was one where the Utes held the statistical edge but failed on key fourth downs. It’s going to be a tough spot for Cougars true freshman QB Bear Bachmeier, and I expect Iowa State QB Rocco Becht to move the ball efficiently and have more success converting on late downs.
Season record: 15-12, +3.04 units
Thanks to all who subscribe to The Inside Zone. Please consider a paid subscription or gift a subscription to a friend or family member here: