CFB Forecast, Conference Championship Week: No. 1 and No. 2 headline an action-packed slate
Game of the Century? Sure, the money all counts the same when gambling.
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 15 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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ACC TITLE TAKE - Duke vs. Virginia
Fortuna - Virginia -3.5 (-115, Hard Rock Bet) - Virginia beat Duke handily on the road, 34-17, just three weeks ago. And that game wasn’t even that close: UVA led 31-3 at the start of the fourth quarter. Why should Saturday in Charlotte be any different? (Other than the fact that this is the ACC and all figurative bets are off, including the possibility of a 5-loss team winning the conference and making the CFP.) It’s not like that first game was fluky, either, as the Cavaliers out-gained the Blue Devils by nearly 300 yards despite losing the turnover battle. Gimme the Hoos in the rematch as well.
Wittenstein - Virginia -3.5 (-105, BetMGM) - Perhaps I’m being a simpleton for this one but Virginia is just the better team? Sure, that’s not the in-depth analysis you’ve come to expect but the Wahoos showed their dominance against Duke three weeks ago in a game that was 31-3 in the fourth quarter. And I’m not sure there’s much the Blue Devils have done to make me expect much different. Chandler Morris has come back from his injury against Wake and looks good, and this Cavalier offense should be humming. Oh, and don’t forget a Virginia defense that held Duke to 255 total yards and forced them to go 4-15 on third downs. The rematch should be tighter, yes, but I think we see the same old same old from both these teams. Gimme Virginia and the points.
Jacobson - Duke +3.5 (-110, FanDuel) - This is a frustrating matchup to handicap because if not for ACC tiebreaker rules, Miami would be in this game against Virginia and we’d have an awesome championship with everything on the line. Instead, we get a rematch from three weeks ago when Virginia upset Duke as an underdog that closed as high as +5.5 in Durham. Now the spread has swung nine points for a neutral-site game in Charlotte. An adjustment makes sense with Virginia playing well and Duke somehow in this game with a 7–5 record, but this number may have overcorrected. I’ll take the line value with the Blue Devils.
BIG TEN TITLE TAKE - Indiana vs. Ohio State
Fortuna - Indiana +4.5 (-115, FanDuel) - These are the two-best teams in the country. While I don’t doubt the fervor of Buckeye Nation, this will be different, with Hoosiers fans flooding Indianapolis for both this game and for the earlier men’s basketball game next door against Louisville. Ohio State is coming off the Michigan game in the snow; Indiana is coming off a rout of Purdue and has an extra day to prepare. Given how slow both teams play — Indiana is 60th in offensive plays per game, Ohio State is 101st — I think this is more of a field goal game. Gimme the dogs to cover.
Wittenstein - Over 47.5 (-112, DraftKings) - Unlike in its game against Michigan where it seemingly had some offensive hurdle to clear, Ohio State’s offense should be much more relaxed in this one. This is a Buckeye team that typically isn’t afraid to throw the deep ball, and saw success against Michigan before going back to the run to wear out the Wolverines in the second half. So we’ll get some points from OSU. Indiana, for its part, has a Heisman candidate quarterback, and an offense that can almost name the amount of points they want to put up. On turf, in a dome, it should be the offenses that thrive in a Big Ten Championship game that might feel more like a Big 12 Championship game.
Jacobson - Ohio State -4 (-112, DraftKings) - I was looking for a creative way to bet this game because I wanted to back Ohio State but the number was hovering around -6. With Indiana money showing up on Monday, the Buckeyes are now cheap enough to play at -4 or better. They started slow at Michigan, but the defense held in the red zone and the offense steadied after an early Julian Sayin pick. With the weight lifted from winning that rivalry game for the first time since 2019, I expect a fully locked-in effort to win their first conference title since 2020. Indiana deserves respect for what it’s accomplished the last two seasons and is a legitimate national title contender — but I believe the Buckeyes are on a different tier than anyone else in the country.
BIG 12 TITLE TAKE - BYU vs. Texas Tech
Fortuna - Texas Tech -6.5 1H (-124, BetRivers) - This was my exact bet (-6.5 that time, too!) when these two teams met last month in Lubbock and there’s no reason to think that it won’t be different this time around. Actually, it might be: TTU had to settle for five field goals, including two in the first half, en route to a 13-0 halftime lead and a 29-7 win. I’m pleasantly surprised to see this number still available, so I’ll pounce on it.
Wittenstein - BYU Team Total Under 17.5 (-117, BetRivers) - Listen, I could write a ton of words about the Texas Tech defense, and put a bunch of numbers to go with it — like their top-three defensive success rate, or their top-three defensive Net Drive rate. But really, you just have to watch the defense for yourself to see how good it really is. And maybe it’s just the reality of being in the blue-collar Big 12 instead of the shiny SEC — nobody seems to notice. The Cougars managed just 7 points in their last game against Tech, so getting another 10 points of cushion here when the stakes are even higher is satisfying enough, but add on the fact that the Red Raiders have given up a combined 16 points in their last three games and that’ll get me hootin’ and hollerin’ and firing bullets into the sky like I’m Yosemite Sam.
Jacobson - Texas Tech -12.5 (-115, BetMGM) - I was on Texas Tech laying the points when we wrote about this matchup a month ago and I’m going to stick with the Red Raiders here. Late money pushed Tech to -13.5 before kickoff in Lubbock for the first meeting, so a similar price on a neutral field in their home state is fair, especially given how that game unfolded. The Red Raiders won 29–7 despite settling for five field goals and the margin easily could’ve been worse. I expect their defensive front to overwhelm BYU’s offensive line and cause problems for QB Bear Bachmeier.
SEC TITLE TAKE - Georgia vs. Alabama
Fortuna - Georgia ML (-135, DraftKings) - This one is simple: Rematches between evenly matched teams almost always go to the Game 1 loser. Just look at Ohio State-Oregon last year, Clemson-Notre Dame in 2020 or … Georgia-Alabama in 2021. The Dawgs won their national title game rematch against the Tide back then after losing to them in the SEC title game. It is still Kirby Smart’s only win over Bama, as he is just 1-7 against the Tide and 0-3 in SEC title games. He is simply too good of a coach to not reverse that trend, especially after letting Bama off the hook in September, when the Bulldogs lost despite a postgame win expectancy of 80.6 percent, per Bill Connelly.
Wittenstein - Georgia ML (-130, Hard Rock) - While nice for their side of the rivalry, Alabama’s Iron Bowl win gave me zero confidence in their ability to win this Saturday. The Crimson Tide really won that game because Auburn lost it. The dropped passes, the silly play calls, and the Tigers’ overall sloppy performance did most of the work for Bama. Now, facing a much more competent Georgia Bulldogs squad that’s seemingly playing its best football of the season, Bama won’t get the same cushion this weekend that it had against Auburn. I think Kirby Smart will outcoach Kalen DeBoer, and we’ll see a Georgia team primed for a run in the playoff.
Jacobson - Under 23.5 second half (-102, DraftKings) - I’m torn on the side here. Georgia is in better form, but if Alabama hit +3 I’d consider the Tide. Instead, I’ll look to the second-half under based on how their first meeting played out on September 27. Alabama won 24–21, with 38 first-half points and only seven points scored after halftime. I can see a similar script in Atlanta: Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb’s offense comes out hot with the opening script, then Kirby Smart’s defense adjusts and slows things down. This could be an even better live look at halftime depending on how the game starts, but some books allow you to bet it pregame.
OTHER CONFERENCE TITLE TAKE
Fortuna - Boise State-UNLV 1H Under 28.5 (consensus) - Boise State QB Maddux Madsen will play for the first time since Nov. 1 after suffering an ankle and toe injury. He just returned to practice this week. Do we really think it will be all systems go for the Broncos, at least early? Throw in the fact that this is a Friday night game with expected rain and temperatures in the 30s, and I see this one unfolding much slower than these teams’ Oct. 18 matchup in Boise, which was a 56-31 win for the home team.
Wittenstein - Boise State-UNLV Under 59.5 (-110, FanDuel) - We saw these teams combine for 87 points in their regular season matchup this season, and as with most rematches — especially in big spots — I think we see two much more measured teams who know each other’s styles. Boise State’s pass defense CAN be good at points, and UNLV has had its last three games in a row hit the under. In their last matchup, we saw four touchdowns of 30+ yards, plus a pick-six. The explosiveness should be less prevalent, and the teams more careful with the ball. Gimme that under.
Jacobson - James Madison -23.5 (-105, BetMGM) - It’s a big number in the Sun Belt title game, but James Madison has every incentive to run up the score against a Troy team that’s only in this spot because the conference still uses divisions. With 7–5 Duke in the ACC championship game, there’s a path for the No. 25 Dukes to sneak into the Playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. And since the ACC title game is Saturday, JMU has every reason to chase style points on Friday night. Bob Chesney taking the UCLA job could’ve been a distraction, but he’s staying through the season, so I’m not worried about that angle.
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Fantastic roundup of the championship week matchups. The point about rematch dynamics in the SEC title game is spot on - historically, you're right that the Game 1 loser tends to perform better in high-stakes rematches when they're evenly matched. What's intriguing here is hwether Georgia's defensive adjustments from the first meeting (where they allowed those second-half points to slip away) will actually translate this time arond. The mental edge from that 80% win expectancy collapse could cut both ways, either motivating them or creating pressure to not repeat the same mistakes.