CFB Forecast Week 14: It's Rivalry Week. Throw out the record books.
"What if we didn't lose a bet?" — Unknown
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps — Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson — slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 14 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
Visit The Gaming Juice, founded by Brad Evans, here.
GAME OF THE WEEK -- Ohio State at Michigan
Fortuna - Bryce Underwood over 154.5 pass yards (-114, FanDuel): I know, I know: Ohio State has the nation’s best pass defense. And total defense. And scoring defense. (But only the No. 2 rushing defense. Slackers.) Still, Underwood has eclipsed this total in seven of his 11 games to date. And Michigan didn’t fork over all of that money to the nation’s No. 1 recruit just to watch him hand it off time after time in the biggest game of the season. The weather is the only thing that concerns me here. Matt Patricia’s defense will probably throw Underwood looks he’s never seen before. But even then, I expect Underwood to eclipse this total given that the Wolverines would be playing from behind and throwing the ball more than usual.
Wittenstein - Michigan Team Total over 16.5 (106, BetRivers): After last year’s slugfest that saw only 23 total points scored, the seemingly common knowledge around this game is that it’s low scoring. Yet, in the last five years of “The Game,” both teams have scored over 20 points in four of them. Last year, Michigan relied on its strong defense and insane run game to win a truly gross 13-10 game. I think this year we see it unfold differently. The Wolverines have the No. 1 QB from last year’s class, and they also have the 20th-best EPA/Dropback rating, per CFBGraphs. They can pass if they want, and with passing comes easier scoring chances. I know OSU has a tough, stout defense, but the Buckeyes haven’t faced an offense at Michigan’s level all season. I think at home, with a top QB, this Michigan team will be able to move the ball enough to get over this number.
Jacobson - Under 22.5 first half (-110, DraftKings): I considered taking Michigan plus the points, but the spread dropped early in the week due to injury questions surrounding Ohio State WRs Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, who both missed last week’s game against Rutgers. It’s certainly possible the duo was just being load managed ahead of The Game, but with temperatures expected in the 30s, this could still be a spot where the Buckeyes’ passing attack is limited. The unit I trust most here is the Ohio State defense, and Michigan is also dealing with injuries in its running back room. With the weather, the offensive uncertainty and a dominant Buckeyes defense, the first-half under in Ann Arbor is the angle I prefer.
Season record: 21-21, -1.60 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - Kentucky (+135, Bet365): It’s rivalry week, which means that upsets are bound to happen. I was torn between the Governor’s Cup and the Palmetto Bowl but ended up going with Kentucky here because it has slightly longer odds at Louisville than Clemson does at South Carolina. Go big or go home, right? And Louisville has been doing the latter lately, dropping each of its last three games, each in more humiliating fashion than the last. It’s unclear if Miller Moss will play, and for all of his faults, we saw last week what this Cardinals offense looks like without him, losing 38-6 at SMU. Kentucky has won the last four matchups in Louisville, and six of the last eight overall. Take the Wildcats on the road.
Wittenstein - Northwestern ML (+220, FanDuel): Sure, I live only 10 miles from the Northwestern campus, but I’m starting to really dig this team. David Braun is building … something in Evanston; I don’t know if it’s special, but something is being built. This is a team that fights and truly believes in the system it’s playing in. The Wildcats took Michigan down to the wire at Wrigley Field and beat Minnesota there a week later. The snowball is starting to pick up steam as it rolls down the hill. Now, they go downstate to play an Illinois team whose season has been on the disappointing side after starting the year ranked No. 12 in the AP poll. After the Illini’s fourth loss of the season, which being dropped them from the CFP rankings, you have to wonder how motivated they really are now. If Illinois’ spirit is broken, I’ll happily take NU — a team that fights — to win this weekend.
Jacobson - Mississippi State ML (+230, BetMGM): The Egg Bowl between Ole Miss and Mississippi State is known for producing chaos. It’s usually on Thanksgiving night, but this year’s matchup comes early Friday afternoon. With coaching rumors swirling around Lane Kiffin, there’s a real chance we get another wild chapter in this rivalry. Ole Miss’ AD even said a decision on Kiffin’s future will come Saturday, the day after the game — an eye-opening stance with jobs like Florida and LSU open. It’s also awkward timing considering the Rebels are 10–1 and firmly in the Playoff mix with a win. With all of those distractions, it’s fair to wonder whether Kiffin will be fully locked in if he’s already made up his mind about leaving. This play leans more narrative than numbers, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Mississippi State pulled off a stunner and shook up the Playoff picture.
Season record: 14-24-0, -1.52 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - Washington State -13.5 (-110, consensus): Unless there is a massive talent gap, in-season rematches always go the way of the Game 1 loser. Ohio State-Oregon 2024, Bama-UGA 2021, Clemson-Notre Dame 2020 … OK, OK, I’ll stop grouping those six teams with these two. Still, Oregon State (somehow) beat Washington State, 10-7, in Corvallis back on Nov. 1, prompting interim coach Robb Akey to jokingly say that his team was in first place in the Pac-2 conference. Since then, the Beavers have lost at home to Sam Houston State and have gotten obliterated at Tulsa. They are coming off an open date while Wazzu is coming off a tough loss three time zones away at JMU, so the Beavs do have that going for them. But only one of these teams is playing with a full-time coach, with a chip on its shoulder and with a need to win to get bowl-eligible. That would be the Cougars, who are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. You know the outlier in that one. (By the way, can I claim a win in this section already for hammering Bowling Green over UMass on Tuesday?!)
Wittenstein - Missouri State ML (-135, ESPNBet): This could be a classic bounce-back spot for the Bears, whose five-game winning streak was snapped last week. Louisiana Tech comes to Springfield with one of the nation’s worst passing games, and I’m just not sure the Bulldogs will be able to score enough to keep up with Missouri State. Gimme the Bears in a rebound spot at home.
Jacobson - Florida Atlantic +7 (-105, BetMGM): A game involving East Carolina has found its way into this section for the third straight week, and I’m 2-0 betting Pirates games over that span. Two weeks ago, I backed them against Memphis, and last week I faded them at UTSA — a game in which ECU was blown out 58–24 in San Antonio. The Pirates’ chance to reach the American championship game ended with that loss and I’m not sure how they’ll get off the mat for another road trip to Boca Raton after such a deflating result. FAU won’t reach a bowl game in 34-year-old coach Zach Kittley’s first season, but the Owls can score; we saw that last week when they put up 45 in a three-point loss to UConn. I’m counting on them to end the year on a high note, or to at least stay inside this number.
Season record: 20-19, +0.03 units
PARLAY PLAY (2-3 legs)
Fortuna - NC State ML and Alabama ML (-106, FD): NC State will beat UNC. Of that I am sure. Hell, my first thought when all of the Bill Belichick drama dominated the offseason talk was that Dave Doeren must be enjoying all of this. He can play up the second-class citizen card better than anyone, which explains why the Wolfpack have beaten the Heels four straight times. I am less certain about Alabama here, but that is me letting emotions override fact. Rivalries — and particularly this rivalry — have ways of clouding judgment. But the fact is that Auburn is not a particularly good football team this year. Alabama is, and the Crimson Tide are essentially playing in a win-and-in game here from a Playoff standpoint. Maybe I’d feel differently if the Tigers started Deuce Knight — I wouldn’t rule out seeing a lot of him regardless — but Bama moneyline is the safe play, as Auburn has covered the last four Iron Bowls at Jordan-Hare Stadium and is 5-3-1 ATS in this rivalry since 2016.
Wittenstein: 2-Leg: Alabama ML, Iowa ML (+107, BetMGM): Let’s do a parlay that spans the whole weekend, shall we? I think Alabama beats up on Auburn pretty badly. This Crimson Tide team is built for bigger and better things this year, and I don’t think this is the type of Auburn team that’s capable of pulling off a crazy kick return TD for the win type of game. Iowa, too, is just built differently from Nebraska. The Hawkeyes have the offensive ability now to keep themselves in games on the road in tough environments. I think they get out of Lincoln with the W.
Jacobson - SGP: Texas +3.5, Over 50.5 in Texas A&M-Texas (+175, FanDuel): I’m considering a bet on Texas if it gets to +3 and I’m also interested in the over, which sits at 51.5 in the main market. So I’ll pair an alternate spread and total for a Friday evening parlay in what I expect to be an entertaining rivalry matchup.
Season record: 13-29, -1.12 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - West Virginia +24.5 (-110, Hard Rock Bet): Interestingly enough, both Texas Tech and WVU are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. I think the streak works in the Mountaineers’ favor here, as they have turned a corner late in the season, they’re at home, it’s a noon ET kickoff and this is their last game. The Red Raiders are the class of the conference and seem all but assured of a Playoff spot, but with bigger fish to fry, TTU seems ripe to be faded here with such a big number on the road.
Wittenstein - Mississippi State +7.5 (-120, BetMGM): First, I want to say how sad and disappointed I am that the Egg Bowl isn’t on Thanksgiving night. There’s nothing better to watch when you’re rotting away on the coach after dinner, drifting in and out of consciousness with a full stomach. Now, for the game. I like Mississippi State this week for two reasons. The first? Three letters: L-S-U. Namely, the next destination for Ole Miss’s current coach Lane Kiffin. The rumor mill has been spinning so fast about Kiffin’s eventual departure for Baton Rouge that it could power a small town. How focused will the historically eclectic coach REALLY be for this game? Especially when the next day he’s likely getting announced as a new team’s head coach? And secondly, I just really like the Bulldogs this season — if you’re a reader of this here column, you know that. I just love their fight, and their spread-covering ability. They’re 5-1 ATS at home this year. With MSU having lost its last two games ATS, I think we’re getting a good market number here.
Jacobson - Washington +7 (-115, Draftkings): I’ve been impressed by Oregon’s November wins, which included a gritty road victory at Iowa and a 15-point win over USC last week. The most notable part of those performances was how the Ducks overcame injuries to key playmakers and along the offensive line, putting themselves on the brink of a College Football Playoff berth. I’d be bullish on Oregon if the Ducks reached the Playoff, but I like Washington here as a home underdog. While Washington has injury concerns of its own, Husky Stadium is always a difficult place to play, and I like QB Demond Williams Jr.’s dual-threat ability in this matchup. I’m counting on the Huskies to get a few key contributors back and to have a real chance to pull off the outright upset on Saturday afternoon.
Season record: 24-18, +5.43 units
Thanks to all who subscribe to The Inside Zone. Please consider a paid subscription or gift a subscription to a friend or family member here: