Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 5 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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GAME OF THE WEEK -- Miami (FL) at Florida State
Fortuna - Miami 1H -1.5 (-120, Fanatics): I don’t have a remarkably strong feeling about this game aside from the fact that I think Miami will win. If that’s the case, why not try to get a piece of the road favorite early? This is a good number for a team that has dominated first halves all season long. Defense travels, and Miami’s D has improved a ton this season.
Wittenstein - Over 53.5 (-110, ESPNBet): Let’s have some fun on a Saturday. We’ve got two teams in the top 25 in offensive success rate, per CFBGraphs, and both have defenses that struggle to prevent opponents’ quality drive numbers. Both squads are top 20 in 3rd/4th down success rate, too. It’ll be hard for the defenses to get off the field. With Carson Beck at the top of his game and electric QB Tommy Castellanos sparking the Seminoles, both teams could easily flirt with 30 points. Drink some beers, and watch a Saturday Night Shootout in Tallahassee.
Jacobson - Florida State +4.5 (-108, DraftKings): Florida State’s double-overtime loss at Virginia last Friday night creates a buy-low spot heading into this primetime rivalry game in Tallahassee. I’ll give the Seminoles a pass for that result as the offense still moved the bal and it was a tricky situational spot with Miami on deck. I like the pairing of QB Tommy Castellanos and OC Gus Malzahn running a ground-heavy attack that can neutralize Miami’s pass rush. Plus, FSU’s Week 1 win over Alabama looks even stronger after the Tide’s victory at Georgia. In the modern CFB landscape, one loss doesn’t derail a season and I expect a focused effort from Mike Norvell’s squad to get back in the CFP mix.
Season record: 7-11, -4.72 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - App State (+110, consensus): The market agreed with me, as I got this one in on Monday. By Tuesday, App State was favored. Oregon State is — how should we put this delicately? — not good. The Beavers are 0-5. They blew a 14-point fourth-quarter home lead Friday night against Houston. Things appear to be coming off the rails in Corvallis. And while they have an extra day to prepare for this one, they are still traveling three time zones to face an App State team that is 54-9 at home since 2015. What, exactly, am I missing here? Take the home dawg to win this one outright.
Wittenstein - Iowa State (+105, FanDuel): Maybe this is a bit of a cop-out bet, but the ‘Clones were bet down from favorites to underdogs when the line opened — and I love backing them in that role. Sure, Iowa State’s schedule so far has been meh. But Cincinnati is coming off a big road win at Kansas and now faces a team that may not do anything great — but does everything well. I think the Bearcats’ lack of defense (113th in defensive success rate) will be their downfall here.
Jacobson - Purdue (+300, BetMGM): Sorry to our editor Brad Evans, but Illinois is on upset alert. The Illini followed up a 63-10 blowout loss at Indiana with a narrow 34-32 win over USC — a game they could’ve won more comfortably if not for two fumbles near the goal line. That game was at home with FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff on-site and next week’s Ohio State matchup in Champaign is also getting top TV billing on FOX. Sandwiched between those marquee games is this tricky road trip to West Lafayette against a rested and improved Purdue team. The Boilers put up 30 on Notre Dame in Week 4 and should be ready under first-year head coach Barry Odom.
Season record: 7-8-0, +2.10 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - San Diego State -5.5 (-110, consensus): Both SDSU and Colorado State have a common opponent, as both got whacked by Washington State … which has lost its other two games against FBS opponents by a combined score of 118-34. Go figure. The Aztecs are doing the heavy lifting here, coming back home on a short week after an odd trip to Northern Illinois last week. But they won that one, 6-3, on a kick at the buzzer — a score that in theory goes against everything Sean Lewis is about offensively, yet is pretty telling in its own right. Don’t look now, but SDSU has the nation’s No. 6 scoring defense (9.8 ppg), tops among Group of 5 teams. The Aztecs also have a 34-0 win over an otherwise unbeaten Cal team to its name, too, while CSU’s only win this season is by four points over FCS Northern Colorado. If you still have your doubts, know that SDSU has the third-leading rusher in the MWC: Lucky Sutton. Don’t tempt fate with this one.
Wittenstein - Kent State +45.5 (-110, BetMGM): This is one of those bets where you’ll look like an absolute genius if it works. Normally, I’d advise against betting on the worst team in college football… BUT… this is a huge lookahead spot for Oklahoma, with the Red River Rivalry slated for next week. It’s a game the Sooners lost last season, so you know revenge will be top of mind. But before that, they’ve got to play lowly Kent State. With QB John Mateer out with a hand injury, you know Brent Venables will be in conservation mode with his players. Maybe once that lead hits 40, he pulls the starters and eases up on the gas. And then, dear reader, the backdoor opens wide.
Jacobson - Wyoming +3.5 (-110, BetMGM): UNLV is 4-0 under Dan Mullen, but their resume doesn’t impress. They squeaked past Idaho State by seven, handled a dreadful Sam Houston team, beat a UCLA squad that fired its coach eight days later and last time out needed a fluky pick-six plus injuries to Miami (OH) to escape with a win. Virginia transfer QB Anthony Colandrea has been a spark, but his turnover issues are a bad fit for a road trip to Laramie. Wyoming already showed how tough they are at home, giving Utah fits in Week 3 before halftime. This is a classic sell high spot on a Rebels team with a misleading record.
Season record: 6-9, -3.57 units
PARLAY PLAY (2-3 legs)
Fortuna - 2-leg: Alabama ML and Miami ML (-111, FanDuel): Alabama isn’t going to lose to Vanderbilt again, right? RIGHT?! The Commodores are legitimately good this year, again, but the Tide seem to be rolling since Week 1, and they’ll have the “College GameDay” energy pushing them, too. Miami, meanwhile, is better than FSU, plain and simple. Doak Campbell Stadium will be electric, and FSU will play with an edge after losing last week, but the Hurricanes have had an extra week to prepare and should prevail here. I think the game line is a little too high for the Canes on the road, so parlay the moneyline with the Tide here. When we say “Miami can’t have a letdown,” we are usually talking about when the Canes play the Georgia Techs and Syracuses of the world. The U tends to bring it for their big games under Mario Cristobal.
Wittenstein - 2-leg: Michigan State +14.5, Louisville ML (+134, Hard Rock): Michigan State is a much better team than people think, with a more than capable offense to keep them in games. Louisville should take advantage of a Virginia team off a field storming win against FSU.
Jacobson - 2-leg ML: Virginia Tech, Louisville (-101, FanDuel): Fading both Wake Forest and Virginia after emotional home upsets over ranked ACC opponents that went to overtime. Expect a letdown from both spots.
Season record: 9-6, +11.98 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - Kent State +28.5 1H (-122, DraftKings): The thought of my money riding with the Golden Flashes makes me a little nauseous. Then again, I had Texas Tech -48.5 against them as my best in Week 2, and Kent State managed to cover by a half-point. But the logic with this one makes sense: Oklahoma has Texas next week, it has a new QB in Michael Hawkins Jr., and it’s not like the Sooners’ offense was lighting the world on fire even with John Mateer running the show (No. 59 nationally in scoring). Gimme the visitors here to keep it to a four-TD deficit or better across the first 30 minutes.
Wittenstein - Maryland +6.5 (-110, BetMGM): I love this spot for the Terrapins. They get Washington traveling three time zones east off a huge game against Ohio State. We’ve seen teams like USC struggle in these situations, and I think the Huskies are no different. Preparing for, playing, and then recovering from a top-5 team like Ohio State is no easy feat. Getting on a plane for five-plus hours in the middle of all that makes it even tougher. And it’s not like Maryland is bad — they’re actually quite good! Their defense ranks 4th in success rate, per CFBGraphs. They defend the pass well and consistently shut down quality drives. Washington will surely struggle in an underrated road environment, so I’ll happily take the Terrapins getting almost a touchdown.
Jacobson - Cincinnati ML (-115, BetMGM): This is more about fading Iowa State than anything else. The Cyclones’ 5-0 start is inflated by schedule luck: an early victory over Kansas State that aged poorly, a narrow win over a limited Iowa team and a close game at Arkansas State. Last week’s 39-14 win over Arizona looked good, but the market was against them as money poured in on Arizona and the line closed just -3.5 or -4 depending on the sportsbook. Now the Bearcats return home after beating Kansas on the road and I think this number is short. I’d make Cincinnati closer to -3, so grab the best ML price available.
Season record: 8-10, -2.67 units
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