CFB Forecast Week 1: Texas-Ohio State the sequel
Our weekly crossover column with The Gaming Juice continues, with more bets to get you fired up for Week 1
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 1 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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GAME OF THE WEEK -- TEXAS AT OHIO STATE
Fortuna - Ohio State -1.5 (-110, DK) - I’m sorry, but I’m taking the bait here. This is the lowest Ohio State home spread of the Ryan Day era. The 2018 Michigan game (UM -4) was the last time the Buckeyes were this close to being a home dawg, and they won that game 62-39. Hard as it may be to believe given their championship rings, these Buckeyes players have a chip on their shoulder after so much talk about them not being the Big Ten favorites. They also have the two-best players on the field -- and maybe the country -- in Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs. Give me the Scarlet and Gray over a Texas team that, while loaded, has four new starters on the offensive line.
Wittenstein - Under 48 (-110, BetRivers) - To borrow a saying from Game of Thrones: What’s new may never score. And much like my attempt at a pop culture reference, these two offenses will likely fail miserably while trying to score. Arch Manning is making his first true road start in one of the country’s toughest environments, and he’ll be behind a somewhat fresh offensive line. For their part, OSU is breaking in new QB, Julian Sayin. He gets his first college start against the No. 1 team in the country that returns six defensive starters to a top-five defense. Expect some growing pains from two fresh QBs in not only the biggest game of the weekend, but one of the biggest games of their lives.
Jacobson - Under 23.5 first half (-105, BetMGM) - Early in the season, I’m looking to bet unders in games featuring first-year starting quarterbacks. This matchup fits, with Texas turning the offense over to Arch Manning and Ohio State giving the nod to redshirt freshman Julian Sayin. Both have five-star pedigrees, plenty of weapons and offensive-minded head coaches, but growing pains are likely early. Add in two talented defenses, and I expect a slow first 30 minutes.
Season record: 1-2, -1.20 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - North Carolina ML (+140, Caesars) - We’re not going to just completely ignore Bill Belichick in this space, are we? For all of the offseason drama surrounding the Hoody, he has not forgotten how to coach. And although I think TCU is a legitimate Big 12 contender this season, Chapel Bill — er, Chapel Hill — will be rockin’ on Labor Day for this matchup. Gio Lopez gets the Fightin’ Belichicks off to a 1-0 start … and then they are on to Charlotte.
Wittenstein - LSU ML (+150, DraftKings) - I’m certainly dancing with the devil here as Brian Kelly is a NOTORIOUS slow starter. But … if not now, when? Kelly has been fighting his whole career to have a team like he has this season at LSU. A top Heisman candidate, and the top rated transfer portal class to go along with seven starters. I’m not fully sold on Cade Klubnik’s ability against a great defense like LSU, so I’ll take the team with the better QB and talent overall.
Jacobson - Virginia Tech ML over South Carolina (+260, BetRivers) - This under-the-radar Sunday afternoon game serves as an appetizer to Notre Dame–Miami. There’s also the storyline of South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer facing the school where his father Frank coached for nearly three decades. The handicap here is simple: I’m fading South Carolina this season and bet under 7.5 regular season wins. LaNorris Sellers is a talented QB, but the Gamecocks lost five defensive starters to the NFL Draft. Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry badly needs a statement win and beating an SEC team on a neutral field in Atlanta would cool his seat significantly.
Season record: 0-0, +0.00 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - Southern Miss +13.5 vs. Mississippi State (-109, BallyBet) - Mississippi State is in a no-win situation here, playing a smaller in-state foe away from home. The Bulldogs finished dead last in the SEC last season, going winless in conference and 2-10 overall. And they were picked to finish last again this season. Southern Miss was also winless in conference play last season, but the Golden Eagles are something of a wild card this year. New coach Charles Huff pulled the Group of 5 equivalent of a Curt Cignetti — taking a bunch of players with him to his next stop, as there are 19 former Marshall players on this Southern Miss roster. Here’s guessing the home team comes to play in what should be a raucous environment with the rare opportunity to take down an SEC team in Hattiesburg.
Wittenstein - San Jose State -11.5 (-108, DraftKings) - Sure the Spartans lose star WR Nick Nash, but they reloaded with a bunch of G4 wide receiver transfers, plus a stout offensive line. Expect QB Walker Eget to air the ball out and wear down this Central Michigan defense in the second half.
Jacobson - Toledo +9.5 over Kentucky (-110, FanDuel) - I’m low on Kentucky this year with journeyman QB Zach Calzada and a brutal schedule that includes six preseason-ranked SEC opponents. Toledo is a tricky opener for the Wildcats as the Rockets are the best team in the MAC. Jason Candle’s program has suffered some baffling upset losses as big favorites, but I’m comfortable backing them in the underdog role. The line dipped to +7 before buyback on Kentucky pushed it back up. I’d love a +10, but even at +9.5, I like Toledo to cover and possibly win outright.
Season record: 0-0, +0.00 units
Fortuna - 4-leg ML: Rutgers, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin (-101, DK)- A four-team moneyline parlay of heavy favorites — what could go wrong? But you know what? It’s the first Thursday of the season and it’s well worth the risk at this price. The Big Ten has flexed its muscle on the field the past two seasons (and done a lot of talking off it), so why not take all four league teams that are playing on de facto opening night? If any lose, it will be cause for concern for their fan bases throughout the season. Here’s betting on them sleeping easy after Week 1.
Wittenstein - 2-leg: Texas ML, Indiana Team Total Over 36.5 (+224, DraftKings) - Texas rolls into Columbus and uses a little Manning Magic to get the win, while IU mirrors its 2024 team and beats up on the little guy.
Jacobson - 3-leg ML: Georgia Tech, Utah, TCU (+267, FanDuel) - I rarely recommend parlaying road favorites, but these three are teams I want to buy against opponents I want to sell (Colorado, UCLA and North Carolina).
Season record: 0-0, +0.00 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - Notre Dame-Miami under 49.5 (-110, DK) - This number has tanked all month, as it was 54.5 at most shops earlier in August. I still think these teams go under 49.5, as both will be absolutely committed to running the football. Miami’s defense should be much better. Notre Dame’s defense, meanwhile, might be the best in the country. All of that means points will be hard to come by for both teams in the resumption of the Catholics vs. Convicts rivalry.
Wittenstein - Alabama -13.5 (-110, Bet365) - No Nick Saban means much fewer headlines for an Alabama team that’s seemingly under the radar this offseason. Yet, the Tide return 14 starters from last year, which includes eight defensive starters that led their top-10 ranked defense last season. While FSU likely has a better season than its car wreck of a 2024, they’re still not at the level of the behemoth Alabama football is and will be this season. At under two touchdowns, give me the Tide and their experience in Year 2 under Kaleb DeBoer to start out 2025 like a runaway train.
Jacobson - Notre Dame-Miami Under 24 first half (-115, Caesars) - This huge Sunday night matchup features two new starting quarterbacks and teams expected to lean on the run. Notre Dame is starting CJ Carr after a strong push in camp from Kenny Minchey, while Miami added Georgia transfer Carson Beck, who’s coming off an underwhelming 2024 and a torn UCL. I question how Beck will look off the injury in a new system against a loaded Irish defense. Expect Notre Dame to feed RB Jeremiyah Love, which should keep the clock moving and the first half scoring low.
Season record: 2-1, +1.00 units
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