CFB Week 5 Forecast: Whiteout wagers in order
We get a mulligan for last week’s Game of the Week picks, right?
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 5 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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GAME OF THE WEEK -- OREGON AT PENN STATE
Fortuna - Penn State -3.5 (even, ESPNBet) - Penn State is coming off a bye, has played no one of consequence and is 0-3 ATS. Oregon has looked better, but its competition hasn’t been that stiff, either, and the Ducks are — depending on when you got last week’s number — just 2-2 ATS. So let’s go with history here. Penn State is 10-6 all-time in White Out games and 10-6 ATS. Limiting it to White Outs that kicked off in primetime, the Nits are 9-3 SU and 9-3 ATS, including 7-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight. Thanks to lovely TV contracts, they haven’t had a marquee Big Ten opponent for this game since Michigan in 2019, so you know this crowd is frothing at the mouth for the opportunity. Plus, programs traveling three time zones away generally struggle, and 3.5 is often an autoplay for me (don’t be fooled by Captain Hook). So we’ll go with the home team here in a Big Ten title game rematch.
Wittenstein - Penn State -3.5 (-105 ESPNBet) - You’ve got the stats angle from Matt, and the situational angle from Nate. So let me present another angle: Revenge. Last year’s Big Ten Championship between these teams saw Oregon lead from start to finish. Drew Allar threw two picks and Penn State outgained Oregon 518–466 yards. With Allar back again this year, and James Franklin looking for his first cover of the season, this game sets up well for a big Penn State win. Of course, they’re off a bye, and of course, Oregon has to travel cross-country after a rivalry game. All good things for Penn State. But as we saw in last year’s game, PSU is more than capable of outplaying Oregon. They had more yards, yards per play, and more passing yards. They even had better 3rd and 4th down efficiency. With a core of returners, Penn State is more than lined up for the perfect revenge game. As long as Allar stays away from the picks, the Nittany Lions should cover this number.
Jacobson - Penn State -3.5 (-105, BetMGM) - We’re already in Week 5 and it’s still hard to get a read on Penn State after a soft non-conference slate of Nevada, FIU and Villanova followed by a bye. The Nittany Lions didn’t show much in those games, likely with this matchup circled. Oregon has looked strong statistically, but their two Power Four wins came against struggling Oklahoma State and Northwestern, and they’re coming off a rivalry game with Oregon State while Penn State rested. I’m not fully sold on the Ducks yet, and this line feels discounted on the Nittany Lions. Add in Oregon’s second long trip this month and the raucous “white out” in Happy Valley, and I like Penn State laying the points.
Season record: 7-8, -1.62 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - Illinois (+210, ESPNBet) - Assuming Illinois hasn’t crawled into a shell after last week’s shellacking at the hands of Indiana, this is actually a nice buy-low spot for Bret Bielema’s bunch. It’s Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff, in Champaign for the first time. It’s a visiting USC team that has just one Big Ten road win ever outside of California, and that came two weeks ago thanks to Purdue throwing not one, not two, but three red-zone interceptions. The Trojans are a little overhyped in my opinion, as they lack the offensive line you need to regularly compete in the Big Ten. The defense remains vulnerable, too. Throw in the fact that this is a 9 a.m. PT start for USC — after an 8 p.m PT start last week — and I can see Illinois springing an upset.
Wittenstein - Cincinnati (+170, DraftKings) - The Bearcats come into Lawrence with a top-20 offense in terms of success rate. The public’s perception of QB Brendan Sorsby is low because the last time he played in front of a wide audience, he threw a game-sealing interception in the end zone against Nebraska. But Sorsby can play, people! He’s the owner of a 70.3% completion rate this season, and he’s coming off a 15-for-15 game two weeks ago. Now, off a bye, his Bearcats’ offense should be ready to take on Kansas on the road. The Jayhawks are flying high after drubbing West Virginia in a terrible spot for them, so I expect Cincy to come in and possibly take the Jayhawks by surprise in a sleepy 11 a.m. local time start.
Jacobson - Auburn (+205, DraftKings) - Going back to the well after last week’s unsuccessful attempt on Auburn at Oklahoma. Hugh Freeze’s team battled in a tough environment, even taking a fourth-quarter lead before the Sooners pulled it out. A few critical calls didn’t go the Tigers’ way — including one the conference later admitted was a mistake. This week, Auburn’s offense should have an easier time moving the ball and true sophomore WR Cam Coleman has the potential for a breakout against a Texas A&M defense that surrendered 40 to Notre Dame in its last outing. It’s not an ideal spot with back-to-back SEC road games and the Aggies coming off a bye, but the price offers enough value to back Auburn both against the spread and on the moneyline.
Season record: 5-7-0, +0.30 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - Utah State +22.5 (-108, FanDuel) - It’s 4-0 ATS vs. 4-0 ATS. Utah State has an open date after this game. Vanderbilt has a trip to Alabama. I’ll take the Aggies – who lost by just 22 at Texas A&M – to cover in this trap spot for the Commodores in an early 11:45 a.m. CT kick.
Wittenstein - Washington State-Colorado St. Under 52 (-110, Fanatics) - This is a bet-and-forget game because, oh boy, it’s going to be stinky. Colorado State is ranked 107th in offensive success rate, while Washington State is ranked 80th. Both teams are ranked worse than 85th in quality drive rate, and Washington State is an insane 124th in Net Points per Drive at -1.85, somehow. These two teams are ALLERGIC to the end zone. Both defenses are bad, sure — but with CSU yet to score more than 21 points in a game, and Wazzu managing just 13 against Idaho, I think an under game here is in order.
Jacobson - Florida Atlantic +13.5 (-102, BetMGM) - This is a good spot to fade Memphis after a 32–31 statement win over SEC foe Arkansas. The Tigers needed some fortune to rally from 18 down, including an Arkansas fumble inside the Memphis 10 with just over a minute left. Now they travel to Boca Raton for their conference opener, where an emotional letdown feels expected. FAU isn’t a good team, as reflected by this point spread, but the Owls are coming off a bye. That extra prep time should help first-year head coach Zach Kittley, a 34-year-old offensive mind who led prolific pass attacks as Texas Tech’s OC the last three seasons. -
Season record: 4-8, -4.54 units
Fortuna - Texas A&M/Ohio State ML (-111, FanDuel) - I like both favorites to win here. I have a lot less faith in both covering the spread. Auburn is clearly better this season and got the short end of the stick last week at Oklahoma, but Texas A&M is coming off an open date and still has so much room for growth after leaving a ton of points on the field at Notre Dame. Ohio State, meanwhile, may be the best team in the country, but this is a tough, tough trip against a dangerous QB in Washington’s Demond Williams. Thankfully for the Buckeyes, defense travels. -
Wittenstein - 2-leg: Arizona +10.5/Arizona State ML (+153, DraftKings) - Let’s ride a little desert parlay action. Taking Arizona with a little more points in a game against a weak Iowa State teams seems like a nice cushion, while ASU shows their dominance at home against a TCU riding the high of a Week 4 win. 2-leg: Arizona +10.5/Arizona State ML (+153, DraftKings) - Let’s ride a little desert parlay action. Taking Arizona with a little more points in a game against a weak Iowa State team seems like a nice cushion, while ASU shows their dominance at home against a TCU riding the high of a Week 4 win.
Jacobsson - 2-leg: Iowa +7.5, Alabama +3.5 (+238, ESPN BET) - These are two I strongly considered for my sledgehammer special, so let’s call this the leftover parlay with Iowa hosting Indiana and Alabama traveling “between the hedges” to face Georgia. -
Season record: 7-5, +9.60 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - Notre Dame-Arkansas O31 1H (-115, Bet365) - The 1H totals of Notre Dame’s three games have been 21, 52 and 58. That 21 number came after a scoreless first quarter between a Notre Dame team breaking in a new QB to start the season and a Miami team that apparently needed all of one quarter to get Carson Beck going. Arkansas’ 1H totals: 38, 49, 59 and 45. CJ Carr and the Irish offense are just getting started. The Irish D is a lot less certain, and it’s unlikely the unit will figure things out early in a hostile SEC environment at 11 a.m. CT. If you’re feeling really ambitious, go for over 13.5 in the first quarter as well, although the juice is much higher for that at most shops.
Wittenstein - Illinois 1Q +2.5 (-108, DraftKings) - I love to take advantage of West Coast teams going east and playing early morning games. Oregon did it against Northwestern and managed a touchdown with 2 minutes to go in the first quarter. When USC went east to Purdue two weeks ago (granted, for an afternoon game) and they only scored 3 points in the first quarter. Washington went to Iowa for an 11 a.m. local time kickoff and didn’t score in the first. Point is, for these West Coast teams, a 9 a.m. body clock start time isn’t conducive to full offensive firepower to start the game. Illinois is going to be PISSED about its Indiana drubbing last week. So now, at home against a USC team playing at 9 a.m. body clock time, I think they can take their anger out early on.
Jacobson - Washington +8.5 (-112, FanDuel) - This is a game I’ve had circled since Ohio State’s 14–7 win over Texas in Week 1. New DC Matt Patricia drew plenty of praise for that game plan, but with Arch Manning’s continued struggles, that effort doesn’t look quite as dominant in hindsight. Washington is a team I’ve been waiting to back and this is the right spot: at home, catching points, against a team making a three-time-zone trip for its first road game of the season. Huskies QB Demond Williams Jr. is a player more people should be talking about, and he has reliable pieces around him in RB Jonah Coleman and WR Denzel Boston. Ohio State has firepower, but this will be Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin’s first career road start and Husky Stadium has proven to be a challenge for a lot of road teams before. I believe Jedd Fisch’s team keeps it close Saturday afternoon.
Season record: 7-8, -1.40 units
The arkansas crowd will be about as raucous as a wake. We just want it all to end… soon.