Fortuna Files: The Playoff possibilities are endless
It sure feels like more than two weeks are left in the season, doesn't it?
Let’s get weird.
1. Michigan survived Northwestern. USC survived Iowa. Now what happens if both pass their last big remaining tests?
2. The Wolverines have a trip to Maryland and then, of course, host Ohio State. The Trojans go to Oregon before hosting UCLA. Say both teams win out. I know that sounds crazy, but given the recent UM-OSU history, it’s not that outlandish.
3. Assuming chalk holds elsewhere, the top of the Big Ten in this scenario would be Indiana (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten), Ohio State (11-1, 8-1), Michigan (10-2, 8-1), USC (10-2, 8-1) and Oregon (10-2, 7-2). Thanks to mred, who has done the Lord’s work the past few years in developing a tiebreaker simulator, we can see that USC would win the three-way tie for second place and face Indiana in the Big Ten title game, based on its conference opponent winning percentage.
4. The two teams in the Big Ten title game would probably make the College Football Playoff, although if Indiana ran USC off the field to hand the Trojans their third loss, perhaps that could doom Lincoln Riley’s squad since there would be other alternatives that weren’t playing that weekend simply because of conference tiebreaker procedures. Ohio State, at 11-1, would still be in no matter what. Michigan, having beaten Ohio State, would almost assuredly be in. As for Oregon? I’m not so sure, especially since both of its losses in this scenario would have come at home.