Predicting every game of the College Football Playoff
Tournament-style football. What could be better?
Welcome to Year 2 of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Last year’s field saw No. 8 take down No. 7 in the national championship game.
Does that mean we’ll see Oklahoma beat Texas A&M for the title this year?
Actually … I have both of those teams losing in Round 1.
Here’s what else I see happening this weekend and beyond. (Lines via DraftKings, including lookahead lines when available.)
FIRST ROUND
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma, 8 ET, Dec. 19 (ABC/ESPN, OU -1.5, O/U 40.5)
I went into this pick a little deeper in our weekly CFB Forecast column Thursday, but I simply can’t see the Sooners making enough plays offensively to win this one unless John Mateer looks more like his pre-injury self. Oklahoma has scored a defensive TD in each of its last two meetings with Alabama. Here’s guessing the Crimson Tide protect the football better and make the third time the charm for Kalen DeBoer against Brent Venables.
Alabama 20, Oklahoma 13
No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M, noon ET, Dec. 20 (ABC/ESPN, A&M -3, O/U 47.5)
Miami is the “right” side in this one, if Vegas is any indication. But I like the Hurricanes here because I simply think they have better players. In fact, this roster is so talented that I think the Canes have a legitimate chance to make a run … I just don’t trust them that much, yet. (But I do trust them more Saturday than I do Marcel Reed after the Aggies QB’s last outing.)
Miami 27, Texas A&M 24
No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss, 3:30 ET, Dec. 20 (TNT/HBO Max/truTV, OM -17.5, O/U 57.5)
Wouldn’t it be something if the Rebels went on a run here without their head coach? Then again, do you really think Lane Kiffin would leave them hanging in the CFP if he felt they were capable of doing that? (Actually, with Lane, you never know.) I think the combination of staff turnover and human nature from these teams’ last meeting — a 45-10 Ole Miss win — will conspire to make this one a little uncomfortable early, but Trinidad Chambliss and Co. will be too much in the end.
Ole Miss 34, Tulane 22
No. 12 JMU at No. 5 Oregon, 7:30 ET, Dec. 20 (TNT/HBO Max/truTV, UO -20.5, O/U 46.5)
I think the Ducks are dangerous, especially as they finally round into full health. The bitter taste in their mouth from last year’s early exit, plus a few unintentional barbs thrown their way (sorry, Pat Kraft), will help Dan Lanning turbocharge this group. I’d say that this one could get ugly, and it very well may, but the combination of the poor weather and the Dukes’ style of play might be enough to keep it from getting truly out of hand.
Oregon 35, JMU 17
QUARTERFINALS
Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State, 7:30 ET, Dec. 31 (ESPN, OSU -8.5)
This is one of two “swing” games in my bracket. I think on their best day, the Hurricanes are dynamic enough to knock off these Buckeyes. Can I really pick them to do this after winning at Kyle Field, though? Ohio State’s Playoff track record (OK, one year, but still) makes me think that Ryan Day has the formula to bounce back from a tough loss again. OSU’s defense is still incredibly difficult to score against, and I’m just not sure that Carson Beck and Co. will have the patience and discipline for 60 minutes to get the best of Matt Patricia’s unit.
Ohio State 24, Miami 14
Orange Bowl: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech, noon ET, Jan. 1 (ESPN, UO -1.5)
It’s still hard to wrap our head around the Red Raiders being this good … and being this good via their defense. But that’s reality in 2025. We have yet to see Texas Tech lose at full strength. Oregon, as good as the Ducks have been, got beaten pretty convincingly at home once this season. Yes, that was against the current No. 1 team in the country (Indiana), but it’s enough for me to waver off the Ducks just a bit in what seems like a 50-50 matchup on paper.
Texas Tech 20, Oregon 14
Rose Bowl: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana, 4 ET, Jan. 1 (ESPN, UA -6.5)
Curt Cignetti said after the Big Ten title game that he’d have three weeks to get his team humble before it takes the field again. I don’t know about you, but at this point I have learned to believe Coach Cig when he says something. I can’t believe I’m writing these words about a game involving these two brands, but I think this is the easiest pick of this round. The only drama may be waiting a little bit longer in the game for the famed sunset over the San Gabriel Mountains, as the Rose Bowls kicks off one hour earlier this season.
Indiana 28, Alabama 14
Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia, 8 ET, Jan. 1 (ESPN, UGA -6)
Oh look, another rematch. Trinidad Chambliss had his way with UGA for three quarters in the regular season meeting, but the Dawgs dominated in the fourth quarter to hand Ole Miss its only loss. It’s a battle between former Nick Saban defensive coordinators this time. I’ll take Kirby Smart and the Dawgs over Pete Golding and the Rebels.
Georgia 31, Ole Miss 21
SEMIFINALS
Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State, 7:30 ET, Jan. 8 (ESPN)
This year’s Georgia team reminds me a lot of last year’s Notre Dame team, relying on guile and guts — particularly at the QB position — to find a way more often than not. Unfortunately for the Dawgs, they, like the Irish, will learn that that only gets you so far against a team as talented as Ohio State.
Ohio State 27, Georgia 16
Peach Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana, 7:30 ET, Jan. 9 (ESPN)
This is the second of the aforementioned “swing” games for me. These are the No. 2 (IU) and No. 3 (TTU) scoring defenses. I’ll take the team with the better QB in Fernando Mendoza, along with the team that has repeatedly proven its ability to win close games (Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State).
Indiana 17, Texas Tech 10
CHAMPIONSHIP
Miami: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Indiana, 7:30 ET (ESPN)
For all of the committee’s faults, the group did get these seeds right: The two-best teams in the country took the field on Dec. 6 in Indianapolis, and Ohio State was not punished too harshly for losing Round 1. The Buckeyes will make good on Round 2, because that’s the way these rematches usually go. I simply can’t imagine Ohio State making it inside the Indiana 10 yard line twice and not scoring either time, as happened the first time. OSU’s postgame win expectancy was 56.1 percent, per Bill Connelly. Indiana is absolutely capable of winning it all, but I think the Buckeyes attack the Hoosiers a little bit differently here and hang their second banner in a row, with Carnell Tate winning Offensive MVP honors.
Ohio State 21, Indiana 13
Thanks to all who subscribe to The Inside Zone. Please consider a paid subscription or gift a subscription to a friend or family member here:
Out of spite I hope Alabama-Oklahoma is a 3-0 game that feels like a trip to the dentist, plus Tulane and JMU getting hopelessly blown out (nothing personal against them, just to highlight the system is dumb and ill-suited.) Maybe throw in a classic Cristobal bungle to cost Miami.
Don't really care who wins, would be nice to see Texas Tech or Indiana go very deep just to get new blood in there.