We’re back, people.
Week Zero arrives Saturday. And while we’re changing things up a bit from last year’s wagering talk — we’re going with futures in the Week Zero spot here instead of game plays — we still plan on having you covered with the best bets of the week.
Here, let’s take a look at some preseason futures.
WIN TOTALS
Illinois over 7.5 (+135, Bet365): I have been captain of the Illini hype train this offseason. They have quietly been one of the more consistently good Big Ten programs in the Bret Bielema era, and if QB Katin Houser is the real deal — and with Barry Lunney as his OC, there’s no reason to think he won’t be — then I think this season in Champaign has the chance to be special. Ca’Lil Valentine is the best running back that no one is talking about, and Bobby Hauck should be an upgrade at DC. Illinois has to play Ohio State and Oregon, but even if those are both losses, can you find three more on this schedule? Because that’s what it would take for this bet to not hit.
Georgia over 9.5 AND Ohio State 9.5 (+141, DraftKings): The Bulldogs haven’t won fewer than 10 regular-season games in a full season since Kirby Smart’s first season, in 2016. The Buckeyes haven’t won fewer than 10 in a full season with a full-time head coach since college football added a 12th regular season game. These are the two surest things in the sport, and though both are juiced heavily to the over, why not combine them into a parlay? DK lets you do that, whereas most books don’t. While I suspect that there will be some surprising SEC unders this season due to the nine-game league schedule, UGA still has the easiest schedule of all 16 teams, per ESPN’s SOS index. OSU’s is the toughest in the Big Ten, and the Bucks also play Texas in the nonconference slate. But they could still afford to lose two games amid the gauntlet of Texas, at Iowa, at USC, at Indiana, Oregon and Michigan. And considering OSU is the overwhelming preseason No. 1 team in both major polls, I’ll ride with the scarlet and gray here.
Oklahoma over 7.5 AND Houston over 7.5 (+144, DK): I’m #TeamSooners this year. Their schedule is brutal, but they return one of the most experienced rosters in the country, particularly on the offensive side of the ball (more on that later). OU’s win total is 8.5 at most shops, so some creative accounting here on DK gets us to 7.5. Houston is in similar territory, so I combined the two here. Willie Fritz is one of the best coaches in the country, and he has a returning QB in Conner Weigman who will be working with the same OC and QB coach in consecutive years for the first time in his career.
Louisville over 7.5 AND Toledo over 7.5 (+175, DK): Shop, shop, shop. While Toledo is a consistent 7.5 across the board, Louisville is at 8.5 in some spots, and again, not all places let you parlay these together. Jeff Brohm has been a head coach for 12 years at three schools. He’s gone over this total eight times, including in each of his last five seasons. Toledo, meanwhile, feels like a great buy-low spot to team up with the lower UL total. The Rockets rank 130th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s returning production index, as the roster completely turned over once Jason Candle left for UConn and Mike Jacobs came in from Mercer. But Jacobs might be the G6’s version of Curt Cignetti: He’s gone over this total in each of his nine full seasons across three different lower-level stops, and he brings with him 14 players from Mercer, where the Bears went undefeated in Southern Conference play, made the FCS playoffs and finished in the top-20 nationally. Toledo has the third-best portal class of any MAC team, per 247Sports, and the Rockets were picked to finish third in the preseason league poll. Week 3 vs. Temple feels like a swing game for this bet … unless Jacobs really is the next Cig, and has the Rockets ready to roll from Day 1.
CFP FUTURES
I find very little value in betting the national championship race, given that there seems to be a clear top-seven entering this season and that all are priced accordingly … for the most part.
Indiana +1050 (Circa): I’m not saying the Hoosiers will repeat, but this is tremendous value. Yes, even after they won it all with odds as long as 100-1 at some books last year. If Josh Hoover is the real deal, IU will at the very least be a contender again. They return arguably the best group of offensive linemen in the country, their receivers are studs and that defense should again be elite, particularly in the front-seven. This price has moved a little given the uncertainty of the eligibility of Stephen Daley and Kellen Wyatt, but this team is probably a contender even without those two.
Fresno State to make CFP (+5500, Bet Rivers): Why not? There will be a Group of 6 team in the CFP, after all. And the new-look Pac-12 offers a ton of uncertainty … and opportunity. Matt Entz is an elite coach, having won two national titles while leading North Dakota State, and he surprised everyone by going 9-4 in Year 1 with the Bulldogs last season. There is still QB uncertainty, which is probably driving this low price, but these guys are worth taking a flier on at this number.
HEISMAN TROPHY
One general rule of thumb I have when it comes to the Heisman is to not bet on any of the preseason favorites, as you will almost certainly find better prices on all of them at some point in the middle of the season.
That said, I did break my own rule for one guy, as I discussed on the latest episode of the podcast of Northern Aggression with Bill Landis and Doug Lesmerises:
Jeremiah Smith (+1600, Circa): The guy is the best player in college football, bar none. He has a chance to be the best Ohio State player ever, too. And he has a pro-style OC in Arthur Smith who will be hellbent on getting the ball into his best player’s hands as much as humanly possible. Considering Smith is as low as +800 at some shops, Circa’s preseason price is hard to resist.
As for the longshots …
John Mateer (+2500, Circa): Mateer was the favorite last season before he got hurt. He was never himself after rushing back from injury. Oklahoma has the third-most returning offensive production in the country, has the bulk of its offensive staff back and has the type of schedule that will allow for big moments. This is a great price on a guy who has played a lot of football.
Lincoln Kienholz (+10,000 DK): Kienholz nearly beat out Julian Sayin for the Ohio State job last season. Now he’s with QB maestro Jeff Brohm in a pass-happy offense at Louisville. He’s worth keeping an eye on.
Nico Iamaleava (+10,000 DK): Another guy with a lot of football under his belt, Iamaleava will now benefit from the Bob Chesney regime. Chesney, for what it’s worth, has won the offseason with all of the changes he is bringing to UCLA. Iamaleava is not part of those changes, which is validating of the one-time five-star’s talent. If nothing else, I’m curious to see how this marriage plays out near Hollywood.
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