CFB Forecast Week Zero: Welcome to Dublin, and to the 2025 season
The first in a weekly crossover column with The Gaming Juice
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 0 bets below.
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GAME OF THE WEEK -- IOWA STATE vs. KANSAS STATE (In Ireland)
BetAlytics Projection: Kansas State 27.5 Iowa State 24.0, K-State 51.6% cover probability
Fortuna - Kansas State -3 over Iowa State (-110, DraftKings) - Betting against Matt Campbell is usually not a profitable venture. The Cyclones are 61-53-1 against the spread (53.5 percent) during his tenure. But Campbell is just 1-3 ATS in Big 12 openers away from home. And Kansas State has actually been the third-best power conference team ATS since 2019 — the start of Chris Klieman’s tenure, going 43-30-3 (58.9 percent). Have a pint, enjoy some early football and take the Wildcats to cover by a field goal across the pond.
Wittenstein - Kansas State Over 6.5 Points first quarter (-125, DraftKings) - Although the loss to Iowa State came last season, it was only two games ago for Kansas State. With six returning offensive starters, their opening drive fumble against ISU back in November will be as fresh as the English Ryegrass they’ll be playing on. Expect that turnover to linger in the mind of dark horse Heisman candidate Avery Johnson, fueling a sharper start in round two of this matchup. With a returning QB, RB, WR, and TE, the Wildcats’ offense takes advantage of an inexperienced ISU defensive line and gets into the end zone early.
Jacobson - Kansas State -3 over Iowa State (-110, DraftKings) - Iowa State is a team I want to sell early in the season after their two 1,000-yard wide receivers from last year’s team, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, were selected by the Texans in the second day of the NFL Draft. The Cyclones return QB Rocco Becht for a third season as starter and I respect head coach Matt Campbell, but I can see a slow start from Iowa State as they find a new identity on offense. I’m expecting Kansas State to have a bounce back season and for former five-star QB Avery Johnson to take a leap for the Wildcats. At -3 or better, Kansas State will have my money in a key Big 12 contest.
Season record: 0-0, +0.00 units
BEST OF THE REST (Top play elsewhere)
Fortuna - Stanford QB Ben Gulbranson rushing TD (+260, Bet365) - What’s better than a get-back game on Week Zero? A player prop in Week Zero. Stanford is too unpredictable to bet as a team right now, given all of the offseason drama. But the Cardinal did name Ben Gulbranson its starting QB, and the man is experienced. He has six career rushing TDs, is playing for a coach, Frank Reich, whose last full-season Colts team finished No. 2 in the NFL in rushing, and they’re playing a Warriors team that ranked 92nd against the run last season. This is a low-risk, high-reward pick, one that will make this late game all the more interesting as an appetizer before the real season begins in Week 1.
Wittenstein - Kansas -12.5 (-110, FanDuel) - Forget new car smell, I’m all about that new stadium scent. With a fresh home base, shiny new facilities and a rocking home crowd, sixth-year senior QB Jalon Daniels bounces back from a down 2024 season in a big Game 1 win. Kansas desperately wants to get rid of the bad taste of a 1-5 start from last year as fast as possible, and doing it against a Fresno State team with first time FBS head coach Matt Entz seems like a great opportunity. Rock Chalk, baby!
Jacobson - Hawaii -2 over Stanford (-110, Caesars) - It’s been a turbulent offseason for Stanford, who fired head coach Troy Taylor after two seasons in late March after an investigation into alleged bullying staffers. GM Andrew Luck hired an old friend from Indy in Frank Reich to try to steady the ship in Palo Alto but an exodus of players transferred out in the spring portal making Stanford one of the worst Power Four programs entering this season. I’m going to take the Rainbow Warriors laying a short price and trust that QB Micah Alejado can pick up where he left off late season running Timmy Chang’s offense.
Season record: 0-0, +0.00 units
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Cyclones against the world!