CFB Forecast Week 8: Georgia looks for revenge against Ole Miss
Plus many more best bets and potential upsets to keep an eye on.
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 5 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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GAME OF THE WEEK -- Ole Miss at Georgia
Fortuna - Trinidad Chambliss over 236.5 pass yards (-115, Bet365) - Chambliss has gone over this number in all four of his starts, with three games over 300 yards. Georgia’s defense was strong last week at Auburn, but it still hasn’t looked like itself for much of this season, ranking 60th against the pass and surrendering 651 total passing yards in its two other marquee games against Tennessee and Alabama. I think Dawgs win this one, but Chambliss should still be in position to clear this number if his team’s playing from behind.
Wittenstein - Ole Miss 1H +4.5 (-120, DraftKings) - You know Lane Kiffin wanted to give NOTHING away on tape to Kirby Smart last week against Washington State. Ole Miss plodded along, failing to cover its -33.5 spread and doing just enough to win by three. Now, Kiffin and Co. can unleash the hounds on Georgia right from the opening kickoff. It helps that the Bulldogs oftentimes struggle to start games, ranking 47th in first-half scoring, while Ole Miss sits at a stronger 12th in first-half points per game. In fact, the Rebels won every single first half against SEC opponents this season. Coming off that lookahead spot last weekend, I think we’re going to see an aggressive Ole Miss attack Georgia now that the guardrails are off.
Jacobson - Over 26.5 first half (-120, BetMGM) - Before last week’s games, the lookahead line for this matchup was Georgia -4.5, and I would’ve loved the Bulldogs at that number. I’m still not fully sold on Ole Miss and this is Ferris State transfer Trinidad Chambliss’ first road start. However, Lane Kiffin’s Rebels spoiled that plan by sleepwalking through a 24–21 win over Washington State as 33-point favorites in Week 7. With the spread now up to Georgia -7.5, I can’t play a side, so I’ll pivot to the first-half over. I expect Georgia’s offense to start faster than it did last week at Auburn, and Kiffin should have enough scripted plays early to generate points before Kirby Smart and his defense adjust after halftime.
Season record: 9-15, -7.20 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - Syracuse (+340, ESPNBet) - There were several intriguing underdog options to pick this week: LSU, Washington, SMU, Arizona State, BYU, South Carolina, Maryland and Auburn, to name eight. Odds are a few of those will knock off their favored opponents. But I’ll go with the one that has the most favorable odds: the Orange. They host a Pitt team that is riding high since turning the offense over to QB Mason Heintschel. But the Carrer — er, RCA Wireless — Dome remains tough to play. This is something of a rivalry game, dating back to the ol’ Big East days. And Pitt is woefully inconsistent, meaning it’s exactly the type of program that would win at Florida State one week and lose at Syracuse the next. The Orange are coming off an open date, too.
Wittenstein - Mississippi State ML (+280, BetMGM) - The Gators might be cooked. They’ve won two games all season, with one against Texas in a terrible spot for the Longhorns right before the Red River Rivalry, and then another against LIU. I had to go look up what LIU stood for, that’s how small they are. So not the shiniest of résumés for Gainesville’s finest. Mississippi State, on the other hand, have been fighters this season. They’ve performed well over market expectations with a 5-1 ATS record, have a top 25 rushing offense, and have a really solid defense. When it comes down to it, I see a team that’s got that Dawg in them against a squad that might just be done for the season with a coach on the chopping block. Gimme the Bulldogs as dogs!
Jacobson - Purdue ML (+140, DraftKings) - Purdue +3.5 was in consideration as a best bet, but I’ll use them here since I think the Boilermakers are very live to win outright at Northwestern. This is an ideal sell-high spot on the Wildcats after their shocking win at Penn State — a result that led to James Franklin’s firing the next day. Northwestern has historically thrived as an underdog, but they’re not a team I trust in the favorite role. Purdue’s offense has shown it can move the ball against quality opponents like USC, Notre Dame and Illinois, and while defense remains a concern, Northwestern doesn’t have the firepower to fully expose it. The Wildcats cashed their win total over 3.5 last week; this week, Barry Odom should notch his first Big Ten win — and Purdue over 2.5 win bettors can cash that ticket.
Season record: 8-13-0, -1.80 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - Ball State -0.5 (-115, Hard Rock Bet) - Yes, we know the Cardinals are coming off a 42-0 whacking at the hands of Western Michigan. But that offers us a nice buy-low spot here, as they are virtually even at home against an Akron team that is playing its eighth game in eight weeks — and will end up playing nine straight weeks before getting a “break” when midweek MACtion play starts on Nov. 11. Akron hasn’t won a road game against someone other than Kent State since winning at Northern Illinois in 2022. Ball State has shown flashes in head coach Mike Uremovich’s first year, upsetting Ohio two weeks ago. Here’s betting we get the better version — or at least good-enough version — of the Cards at home against the Zips.
Wittenstein - App State -10 (-110, Bet365) - App State has been a tank over the past couple weeks; scoring 27 then 41 points back to back with two strong wins as favorites. They’re back at home this weekend against a Coastal Carolina team whose offense should come with a NSFW warning. If you like the color red, go read how Coastal ranks in offensive numbers. I don’t see how they stay with an App State team that’s riding high and at home.
Jacobson - UAB +21.5 (-110, BetMGM) - Lost in the news of James Franklin getting fired on Sunday was UAB ending the Trent Dilfer head-coaching experiment. I wasn’t a big fan of Dilfer in that role, so I actually see his absence as a potential upgrade, at least for one week. Offensive coordinator Alex Mortensen takes over as interim head coach and the Blazers have shown they can score this season. What pushes me toward UAB here is the spot — Memphis has a huge game against USF next week that they could be looking ahead to.
Season record: 9-12, -4.14 units
Fortuna - 2-leg: Cal -9.5, Duke ML (+231, FanDuel) - Do we call this the Tobacco Road Special? If you’re from Durham, you might. Cal hosts North Carolina on Friday night, and I cannot for the life of me figure out how the Fighting Bill Belichicks are not double-digits dawgs to any Power 4 team at this point. Throw in the time zone difference, and the Bears should roll. Duke, meanwhile, has rebounded nicely from its rough early start, putting up 38 or more points in three straight games. The Blue Devils are coming off an open date, and undefeated Georgia Tech has played with fire a little too much lately. Manny Diaz’s guys will make the Yellow Jackets pay.
Wittenstein - 2-Leg: Michigan ML, Utah ML (+142, FanDuel) - You can read more below why I like the Utes to not only win but cover. I also love Michigan getting a Washington team on a three time zone trip. Add that on to a 9 a.m. body clock start and the Wolverines should have a nice little bounce-back win after their loss to USC last week in L.A.
Jacobson - 2-leg: Alabama ML, Utah ML (+118, FanDuel) - If you’re looking for an extra best bet, I’d take Utah if the line drops back to -3. Since it’s sitting at -3.5 as of writing, I’ll instead pair their moneyline with Alabama, who I expect to take care of business at home against Tennessee.
Season record: 10-14, +7.97 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - Notre Dame -8.5 (-115, Fanatics) - Notre Dame is at home. It is the type of physical program that has been a thorn in USC’s side during the Lincoln Riley era. The Irish now have the offensive firepower to light up the scoreboard, too. And did we mention that this is the final scheduled game between the two storied rivals, a series whose future is in doubt because of USC’s concerns about continuing it? You better believe Marcus Freeman will have his guys ready to play in primetime, especially with the Irish a loss away from falling out of the Playoff race. If you got this at -7.5 last week, more power to you. It could get ugly for the Trojans in South Bend.
Wittenstein - Utah -3 (-118, DraftKings) - After Utah’s loss almost a month ago at home to Texas Tech, they kinda fell off everyone’s radar. They had a bye week and then played West Virginia, so there wasn’t really a big spotlight on them for a while. Last week, they had a fun matchup against ASU, but the Devils’ starting QB was out for the game, so the blowout didn’t get any eyeballs. Point is, I see a team that’s undervalued in the market. BYU is coming off an OT thriller in the desert against Arizona, a game they probably shouldn’t have won. I think Utah is better than people think, going against a team that’s due for a letdown after a late-night win. I think they can win by more than a possession. Gimme the Utes!
Jacobson - Louisville +13.5 (-105, BetMGM) - This Friday night matchup between Louisville and No. 2 Miami stood out immediately when scanning the odds on Sunday. This is a perfect storm where Louisville is undervalued coming off a 30-27 overtime loss to Virginia, a game in which the Cavaliers scored two defensive touchdowns. The Cardinals also have one of college football’s better underdog coaches in Jeff Brohm, who has several memorable wins at Purdue, including one over Ohio State in 2018, and with Louisville last year at Clemson as a double-digit ‘dog. Miami is being priced like one of the nation’s elite and Mario Cristobal isn’t a coach I trust to consistently cover a big number against a well-prepared opponent. Expect Louisville’s best effort behind Brohm’s offensive game plan and veteran QB Miller Moss to keep this one within two touchdowns Friday in South Beach.
Season record: 14-10, +3.33 units
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