CFB Forecast Week 7: Can Indiana make a statement at Oregon?
Yours truly is 9-1 these past two weeks. Fade or follow accordingly.
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 5 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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GAME OF THE WEEK -- Indiana at Oregon
Fortuna - Oregon -7 (-115, DraftKings): Fine, I’ll take the bait. And I’m not one of these Indiana haters, either. The Hoosiers were clearly one of the 12-best teams in the country last year, and they clearly look like one of the 12-best teams so far this season. But there’s a difference between Playoff contender and national title contender, and Oregon represents that difference. I actually think the Ducks have been a little overvalued to date, but we have seen this before under Dan Lanning, where his teams start the season slow(ish) and hit their stride in the heart of their schedule. Expect that trend to continue against IU. Take the home team in front of a raucous “College GameDay” crowd.
Wittenstein - Indiana 1Q Team Total Over 2.5 (-130, DraftKings): I feel like I’m in a rom-com right now, with my head and heart telling me different things about the love of my life: Indiana football. My head says this follows the same script IU usually sticks to against top-tier opponents—blowouts. But my heart? My sweet, sweet heart thinks IU can pull off the upset on the road. The one thing my head and heart both agree on, though, is that IU will come out aggressive. Against No. 1 Ohio State on the road last season, IU came out hot and led 7-0 at the end of the first quarter. In its first big road test this season at Iowa, IU again started strong, scoring a touchdown on the first possession. I think we’ll see a similar script unfold in Eugene. IU’s offense ranks in the top 10 nationally, and with a scripted first possession, the Hoosiers should be able to get into position for at least a field goal.
Jacobson - Oregon -7 (-115, DraftKings): This is a tough game to get a read on. Oregon’s road win at Penn State two weeks ago doesn’t look quite as impressive after the Nittany Lions were upset by UCLA last week. Still, I’m unsure how Indiana will handle a true road test against one of the most talented teams in the country. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have shown they can beat up on inferior opponents, but they’ve struggled when stepping up in class, as we saw last season against Ohio State and Notre Dame. Until Indiana proves otherwise, I’ll lean toward Oregon at what could be a discounted number.
Season record: 8-13, -5.90 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - UMass ML (+125, Bet365): Kent State is favored! In an FBS game! You know the last time that was the case? In 2022! The Golden Flashes were 7.5-point favorites over Eastern Michigan on Nov. 16, 2022 and lost outright, 31-24. The last time they were favored against an FBS team and won came a week earlier, in a 40-6 win at three-point underdog Bowling Green. Those games came two head-coaching regimes ago. And Kent State has not beaten an FBS team since that 2022 regular-season finale, too. So let’s take advantage of the opportunity here. And let’s shine a light on a game that may very well feature the nation’s two-worst FBS teams, because how often do we get that kind of matchup? Add some excitement to this barnburner and take the underdog Minutemen to score the “upset” and notch their first MAC win.
Wittenstein - Maryland ML (+225, Hard Rock): Maryland +6.5 won us our Sledgehammer Bet last week, with the Terrapins almost winning outright. I think they can do it here. Up 20-3 last week against Washington, Maryland simply forgot how to play offense and crapped their pants in the fourth quarter to lose the game. With that fresh in their minds, another home game — this time against a Nebraska team I’m not sold on offensively — could help right the ship. Maryland’s defense finally gets some second-half help, and gets the Turtles a home victory upset.
Jacobson - Florida ML (+230, FanDuel): I don’t usually like backing a team the week after a big home upset, but I still think Florida is undervalued. The Gators entered the season with high expectations, only to see most of their goals crushed in September losses to USF, LSU and Miami. But last week after a bye, Florida looked much closer to that preseason version in a 29–21 win over Texas with QB D.J. Lagway looking healthier, freshman WR Dallas Wilson shining in his debut and the defense continuing to do its part. A trip to College Station to face the No. 5 team in the country is a tough test, but getting more than a touchdown feels generous. With how hard this group continues to play for Billy Napier, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Gators pulled the outright upset.
Season record: 8-10-0, +1.20 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - ULM ML (-125, Fanatics): When Circa posted this week’s lines on Sunday, it listed Coastal Carolina as a 2-point favorite. I immediately looked everywhere to see if betting ULM as a ‘dawg was feasible, but the best I could come up with was this price, which has now gotten as high as -150 in some spots. The Warhawks have been a little Jekyll and Hyde this season, and they burned me big-time against Alabama. But this game is more their speed. Coastal Carolina has been brutal, going just 1-3 against FBS teams with an average margin of defeat of 39.6 points. Even the Chanticleers’ one win, a 38-20 victory at South Alabama, saw them get out-gained by 126 yards but win the turnover battle.
Wittenstein - San Jose State ML (-122, DraftKings): I used to be terrified for teams who had to play in Laramie at night. Not anymore. Wyoming stinks, man: 102nd in offensive success rate, and 115th in opponent EPA/rush per CFBGraphs. The Cowboys can’t stop anyone and struggle to score. The Spartans, conversely, are actually solid. Their offense is serviceable after a 487-total-yard performance last week. I think the Cowboys are sadly cooked, so a SJSU short ML is something I’ll gladly take.
Jacobson - USF ML (+100, ESPN BET): This is a Friday night game as USF travels to Denton for a date with North Texas. It’s also one of the most important games this week for the College Football Playoff because the American winner has a great chance to get the Group of 5 spot in the 12-team field and these are two of the top-four teams in the conference odds. I like the Bulls here behind QB Byrum Brown, who’s already proven himself in tough environments after a win at Florida. North Texas might be a bit overvalued after needing overtime to get past Western Michigan and Army in September.
Season record: 8-10, -2.67 units
PARLAY PLAY (2-3 legs)
Fortuna - 2-leg: Oregon ML and Texas A&M ML (-149, FanDuel): Confession: I whiffed on this one. I saw this available late Saturday night/early Sunday morning and pounced on it immediately, thinking the Oregon line would grow. Obviously, the reverse happened. I stand by this bet, but luckily for you, this price has come way down — it’s -119 on ESPNBet — so there’s less risk.
Wittenstein - 2-Leg: Michigan State ML + Utah ML (-103, ESPNBet): I’m high on this Spartans team coming back home after a couple tough road games. They now get lowly UCLA in a letdown spot after their improbable win over Penn State. Utah, off a bye and having suffered an embarrassing home loss two games ago, gets to play Arizona State at home. The Utes will have their bounce-back game against an ASU team that’ll be out of their element in the Utah air and weather.
Jacobson - 3-leg: Auburn +3.5, USC ML, Arizona +1.5 (+550, FanDuel): These are three other bets I’ve personally played that were also in consideration for the Sledgehammer Special.
Season record: 10-8, +10.97 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - Virginia Tech +15.5 (-125, BetMGM): I’ll sell high on undefeated Georgia Tech here. The Yellow Jackets were sloppy in wins over Colorado and Clemson — a win that doesn’t carry the same weight as it did at the time of the game — and they only beat Wake Forest because of a missed offsides call late. The Ramblin’ Wreck probably win this game at home, but this line is way too high for a conference game, especially with how much better the Hokies have looked with Philip Montgomery in charge.
Wittenstein - USC Team Total Over 28.5 (-115, DraftKings): I don’t mind betting on a great defense to get the job done when it’s at home. On the road? More specifically, when it’s more than 2,200 miles away from home? I’ll take the great offense against a great defense in that situation. And, boy, do the Trojans have a great offense. They’ve gotten over this number in every game this season. They rank 4th in offensive success rate, per CFBGraphs. They’re 3rd in EPA/dropback! I think after a bye week leading into a home game, this USC offense should explode against a Michigan team whose defense splits are drastically different on home and road games.
Jacobson - Oklahoma-Texas Under 21.5 first half (-120, FanDuel): This is a tough game to call from a side perspective. Texas has been significantly downgraded from its preseason power rating, and the only reason the Longhorns are a small favorite in this neutral-site matchup in Dallas is Oklahoma QB John Mateer’s uncertain health just two weeks after thumb surgery. Mateer is listed as questionable on the SEC availability report, and regardless of whether he plays, I expect a low-scoring start. I’d prefer if Mateer suits up as it could drive the total up slightly and he’s unlikely to be close to 100 percent. Both defenses are legitimate, with Texas still strong on that side of the ball and Oklahoma boasting one of the nation’s better units. Facing a struggling Arch Manning and Texas offensive line only helps that cause. I’d wait to bet this until Mateer’s status is confirmed, but either way, the first-half under is the play in the Red River Rivalry.
Season record: 11-10, +0.33 units
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