CFB Forecast Week 4: An unexpected B1G time battle
We were due for a letdown with our Game of the Week picks. Can we rebound this weekend?
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 2 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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GAME OF THE WEEK -- ILLINOIS AT INDIANA
Fortuna - Illinois +3.5 1H (-110, DraftKings) - I’ll be at this game, so I won’t have any action on it, but I expect a defense slugfest between two evenly matched teams. This line has been in no man’s land all week, and there is even an Illinois +6.5 out there. But I’ll go with Illinois in the first half because I have a hard time seeing either team leading by more than a field goal after 30 minutes. What’s the worst that could happen with this bet? A 7-3 Indiana lead? (Ducks head.)
Wittenstein - Under 53.5 (-110, Fanatics) - Listen, I’m not happy with myself either for taking this under. No one wants to root for an under, especially in a prime time game. But much like a doctor saving lives or a fireman rescuing someone from a burning building, I’m doing what must be done for the greater good. The tales of offensive talent from both teams are indeed true, yet the tales that aren’t told as often are the skills of both teams’ defenses. Illinois comes in ranked 38th in defensive success rate, while Indiana holds the 8th-ranked spot. The Illini’s talented secondary will prevent IU’s explosive offense from getting behind them, and Indiana’s run game might struggle a bit with Illinois’ 24th-ranked run defense. This Big Ten matchup might not be three yards and a cloud of dust, but expect meticulous, cautious play from two teams starting their conference play in a huge spot.
Jacobson - Indiana 1 to 5 winning margin (+550, FanDuel) - I don’t have a strong betting opinion on the side or total in this matchup, which could have major College Football Playoff implications. These teams look evenly matched, and while I considered Illinois plus the points, I ultimately lean toward Indiana finding a way to win at home. With little separation, I’ll take a swing at a big price on the Hoosiers winning by 1–5 points.
Season record: 7-5, +1.56 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - Miami-Ohio +110 (consensus) This may be the stinkiest line of the week, which means I’m all in. The RedHawks have not looked the part of perennial MAC contender so far, but they are playing at home against a fellow Group of 5 team traveling three time zones for what will be a 9 a.m. PT start. Historically, that doesn’t bode well for the visitors. And this line has tanked as much as two full points since it opened at UNLV -3.5 earlier in the week, which is telling me something. And that something is to bet the Fightin’ Chuck Martins at home.
Wittenstein - NC State ML (+150, Circa) - I just don’t know if Duke is that good? Its defense is horrendous, ranking 103rd in EPA/Rush and 104th in EPA/Pass, and it rarely gets stops in crucial 3rd and 4th down situations. NC State ranks in the top 50 in points per play and has a QB in CJ Bailey who’s thrown only 1 interception this year with a 70% completion percentage. Duke gave up 6.8 yards per play last week to Tulane, and I expect Bailey to have the same freedom of movement that Jake Retzlaff had. The Wolfpack go to Durham and prove their dominance.
Jacobson - Auburn ML (+200, BetMGM) - This is another matchup where I don’t see much separation, but I do think Auburn has the upside to pull off a road win at Oklahoma. Entering the season, I pegged the Tigers as a potential surprise after a 5–7 campaign filled with close losses. They added former OU QB Jackson Arnold in the portal to pair with a strong receiving corps. I’ve been impressed with Oklahoma and transfer QB John Mateer, but I expect this game to come down to the final possession. I’ll look to grab Auburn +7 before kickoff, but I’ll also put a portion of my position on the moneyline.
Season record: 5-4-0, +3.30 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - Western Michigan +14.5 (-110, BetMGM) This feels like an overreaction to last week, as WMU was shut out and Toledo pitched a shutout. But the 0-3 Broncos have played a tough schedule, losing at Michigan State and Illinois while falling to a good UNT team in OT. And Toledo’s 60-0 win last week was against an FCS team. The Rockets should win this one, but it’s a road conference game in a place they have lost in each of their last two trips. Expect WMU to cover.
Wittenstein - Tulane +13.5 (-105, DraftKings) - Shoutout to Jake Retzlaff for what he’s done with this Tulane offense. Top 50 in points per possession and 32nd in quality drive length. Ole Miss is no doubt a good team, but they’ve got No. 3 LSU on slate for next week, and as much as Lane Kiffin loves to run up the score, I think he loves to keep his playbook from prying eyes even more. Perhaps we see a more basic Ole Miss team in the 2nd half, or Tulane even catches them looking ahead to next week.
Jacobson - East Carolina +6.5 (-108, DraftKings) - Back in the summer, I had BYU circled as a regression candidate after last year’s unexpected 10-win season — even before QB Jake Retzlaff transferred out. This sets up as a prime spot to fade the Cougars and true freshman QB Bear Bachmeier, with BYU making a long trip to Greenville, NC right before its conference opener against Colorado. East Carolina has impressed early, losing to NC State by just seven in Week 1 before rolling Coastal Carolina 38–0 last Saturday. Head coach Blake Harrell has injected life into the program since taking over as interim last season, and this is the kind of spot where the Pirates and their fans will get up for.
Season record: 3-6, -3.41 units
PARLAY PLAY (2-3 legs)
Fortuna - Oklahoma and Miami ML (-109, FanDuel) I like both home favorites to win. I don’t love either point spread. So I took them both to win outright, which will hopefully allow me to breathe a little bit easier. I like the Sooners this year, but I feel like they have gotten a little too much love for that Michigan win, so simply beating Auburn by any amount here will do for me. I might fall in love with this Miami team the more and more it plays, but I can’t discount how close Florida has played in its two losses. There’s talent on that Gators roster, and this is a rivalry game, so I’ll simply go with the Hurricanes to win outright.
Wittenstein - 2-leg ML: Indiana, North Texas (+156, ESPNBet) - Call it bias, and I hope Brad doesn’t censor this pick, but I think IU takes the cake on Saturday. It has the defense to match its offensive capabilities, and I just don’t think Illinois will be able to keep up on either side of the ball on the road in prime time. North Texas is the better team here, Army had its moment in the sun, beating a terrible Kansas State team, but Texas State is a more competent program right now, with a good coach. Gimme the Mean Green to make me some Mean Green.
Jacobson - 2-leg ML: TCU, Baylor (+152, BetMGM) - I like Baylor ML against Arizona as a standalone play, but to get them at plus money I’ll pair the Bears with their in-state rival TCU in the Iron Skillet rivalry matchup against SMU.
Season record: 5-4, +8.04 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - Duke -3 (-113, BetRivers) Another stinky line, which is all the more reason to jump on it. Duke is in a weird spot — it played much better than the final score would indicate against Illinois, but it played much worse than the final score would indicate at Tulane. NC State has two extra days to prepare as well. And yet, this line is so off that I can only fall back on what the great Lee Corso would say: Somebody knows something. Give me the Blue Devils as a home favorite.
Wittenstein - Michigan State +18.5 (-115, BetMGM) -USC looks like a powerhouse right now, so it’s tough to make a strong case for Michigan State to win this game. But the Spartans seem to be slept on. I’ll do my best Magic 8 Ball impression here: Will they win? Outlook not so good. Will they lose by less than 18? Most likely. This line has ballooned from an open of 13 at Circa to now 18.5, and that just feels like it’s gotten way out of hand. This isn’t your slightly older brother’s Michigan State. This is a new and improved Spartans team. MSU is solid enough to keep it within that margin. The Spartans own a top-40 offense in points per play, rank 33rd in EPA per rush, and sit in the top 35 in early downs EPA. They’ve shown offensively they can bring some heat and that just might be good enough to keep within three possessions in LA.
Jacobson - Utah -3 (-110, Caesars) - As Utah and Texas Tech head into their Big 12 opener, I don’t think we know much about either team. Utah’s dominant 43–10 win over UCLA looked impressive at the time, but the Bruins fired alum Deshaun Foster after just 15 games following a blowout home loss to New Mexico. Texas Tech’s best result is a win over an Oregon State team that has started 0–3. I’m very high on Utah and New Mexico transfer QB Devon Dampier, especially with his former OC Jason Beck now running the Utes’ offense for continuity. Tech looks solid on paper after heavy portal spending, but I’ll take Utah at this price in one of the toughest environments in college football — even with the 10 a.m. local kickoff.
Season record: 6-6, -0.15 units
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