We’re off to quite the wild start, aren’t we?

Away we go …

South Alabama +21.5 (-115) at Kentucky (HardRockBet). This line feels inflated, as Kentucky is coming off a huge win at Texas A&M and South Alabama is a G6 team, albeit a quality one. Don’t let the final score of the Jaguars’ 41-36 win over Ohio fool you; this was a 38-21 game with eight minutes left, with USA playing a backup QB in Jared Hollins, no less. The Jags nearly won at Tulane a week earlier, too. Expect the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than the experts think, regardless of who lines up at QB1 between Hollins and Bishop Davenport.

Nolan James Jr. over 64.5 rushing yards (-114) at Purdue (FanDuel). Sure, James went over this number for the first time in his career this past Saturday … but he went way over it, going for 121 yards vs. Michigan State. And that was as Notre Dame’s RB2. He’s now earned the “OR” distinction at starter along with Aneyas Williams, who has underperformed the past two weeks. More importantly, the Irish are determined to get some rhythm with their ground game. And considering the Boilermakers gave up 369 rushing yards to UCLA last week, this is just the game for things to come together for James and the Irish.

Bryce Underwood under 174.5 passing yards vs. Iowa (FanDuel). What has Underwood shown that makes one think he’ll eclipse this mark, especially against a defense as sound as Iowa’s? He went for 223 vs. UTEP, but UTEP is one of the worst teams in the country. Underwood has gone under this total in six of his 12 games vs. Power 4 competition. The Hawkeyes boast the nation’s No. 5 pass D through three games, having given up no more than 117 (to Iowa State) in a single contest. They finished No. 10 against the pass last season and gave up 175 or more passing yards just five times; two of those games came against Fernando Mendoza and Diego Pavia, the first- and second-place Heisman finishers. Underwood is neither of those guys. With an over-under south of 40 in this game, there won’t be a lot of offense on either side.

Week 1: 3-0

Week 2: 0-3

Week 3: 3-0

Season: 6-3

CFB Forecast Week 4: Wild swings