CFB Forecast Week 3: UGA looking to climb Rocky Top
We keep sweeping our Game of the Week picks. Guess what? We're all in alignment this week. What could go wrong?
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 2 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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GAME OF THE WEEK -- GEORGIA AT TENNESSEE
Fortuna - Georgia -3.5 (-108, DraftKings) - We’ve got the Dawgs right where we want them. This line opened at -7.5 and has been tanking ever since, which is just fine with yours truly. Kirby Smart is at his best when folks are sleeping on him, and though neither team has shown a ton so far — the Vols’ win over Syracuse doesn’t hold much weight in this corner — one must remember that UGA was without right guard Juan Gaston and right tackle Earnest Greene this past weekend against Austin Peay. Whether either returns for this clash in Knoxville remains to be seen, but I like the Dawgs to win comfortably against Tennessee, which they have done in their last eight meetings by an average margin of 24.8 ppg.
Wittenstein - Georgia -3.5, (-108, DraftKings) - We think we know Georgia this year. We think. But we really don’t. Kirby Smart has lived up to his last name; he hasn’t shown anything of importance against his team’s first two opponents in Marshall and Austin Peay. You think he’s going to have his team run anything other than a basic offense before his conference opener on the road? The Bulldogs team we’ve seen the last two weeks is likely a shell of what we’re going to see this weekend. Gunnar Stockton and this Georgia offense will likely be too much for Tennessee to handle. And of course, there is the vaunted Georgia defense, whose starters have not actually allowed a touchdown this season (Marshall’s 4th quarter score was against backups). I think we see the full force of Georgia football this weekend.
Jacobson - Georgia -3.5 (-108, DraftKings) - I think the early-week line move toward Tennessee is an overreaction. The Vols’ 19-point win over Syracuse in Week 1 doesn’t move the needle for me, given how low I am on the Orange, and Georgia clearly kept things vanilla in their first two games with this matchup in mind. Kirby Smart has owned Josh Heupel in four straight meetings, holding Tennessee to 17 points or fewer each time. Now the Vols have their least talented QB of that stretch in App State transfer Joey Aguilar, and they’re down both starting cornerbacks (Jermod McCoy, Rickey Gibson). Maybe Gunnar Stockton won’t fully expose those holes, but overall I believe Georgia is simply much better than Tennessee.
Season record: 7-2, +4.80 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - Vanderbilt (+175, Fanatics) - Vanderbilt received one vote in this week’s AP poll. One! The Commodores received seven votes in the coaches’ poll. South Carolina, meanwhile, is ranked 11th in the AP poll and 10th in the coaches’ poll. Why? Both teams beat Virginia Tech – the Gamecocks by 13 on a neutral field, the Dores by 24 on the road at night. Diego Pavia is 8-2 ATS as a dawg with Vandy, and I think he leads his squad to another outright upset win, this time over a South Carolina team that lost too much defensive personnel from last year for my liking.
Wittenstein - Georgia Tech ML, (+143, Caesars) - I’ve lamented my distrust of Clemson QB Cade Klubnik all preseason and now all season. I think Clemson is still primed to have one big screw-up this season, and on the road against an underrated Georgia Tech team seems like a good spot for that to happen. The Yellow Jackets’ offense has looked great so far this season, averaging 6.8 yards per play in their Week 1 road game against Colorado. And sure, Gardner-Webb in Week 2 isn’t exactly a statement opponent, but Tech still averaged over 11 yards per play in that one! Haynes King had last week off, so he’ll be as fresh as possible to give the Clemson defense some issues. Gimme the ‘Jackets to pull off the home upset.
Jacobson - Arkansas ML (+225, DraftKings) - I agree with Ben’s Georgia Tech angle, so to switch it up I’ll take a shot on another underdog in Arkansas on the road at Ole Miss. Much of the offseason pessimism around the Razorbacks was schedule-driven — with upcoming non-conference games against Memphis and Notre Dame plus seven SEC opponents currently ranked. QB Taylen Green is dangerous and pairing him with OC Bobby Petrino gives Arkansas a chance to score here. On the other side, I’m looking to fade Ole Miss in spots this season, and QB Austin Simmons came out of last week’s Kentucky game banged up. Even if he plays, he may not be 100 percent, which makes Arkansas very live in this matchup.
Season record: 3-3-0, +1.12 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - New Mexico +16.5 (-110, Fanatics) - The Lobos played Michigan to a draw at the Big House after falling behind 17-0. Asking them to do something similar against a reeling UCLA team isn’t too big of an ask. They’ll need to create their own energy, as this is a 7 p.m. ET start on a Friday night at the Rose Bowl — which was dead for the opener against Utah — but Jason Eck’s squad won’t be sleepy. Will the Bruins finally wake up this season? That’s the ultimate question.
Wittenstein - Western Michigan +27.5, (-108, DraftKings) - Hope you’re hungry reading this because this is a great sandwich spot to fade Illinois. The Illini are coming off a huge road win against Duke, which was one of the early-season games they had circled on the calendar. Next week, Illinois travels to Indiana in what will likely be a Top 20 matchup in primetime on NBC. So this week, they’re at home, playing an inferior team in Western Michigan. Bret Bielema is smart. He’s not going to put anything on tape that he doesn’t have to. Illinois will likely run a very basic offensive gameplan while playing as conservatively as possible so as to not rack up any injuries. On the other side, this will be the Broncos’ biggest game all year. A matchup against a Top 10 team doesn’t come around often for MAC teams. Expect Western Michigan to treat this like their Super Bowl. We’ve got one team trying to just make it to next week, and one playing their butts off. Give me the team playing their butts off to cover.
Jacobson - Temple +21.5 (-110, BetMGM) - This is a pure fade of Oklahoma in a brutal scheduling spot: a noon kickoff at Lincoln Financial Field. The Sooners are coming off a huge home win over Michigan that eased pressure on Brent Venables, and next week they host Auburn in their SEC opener — featuring former OU QB Jackson Arnold. This number has been bet down during the week because of that “spot tax,” but I’ll still take a shot on the Owls under new head coach K.C. Keeler to keep it inside three touchdowns.
Season record: 2-4, -2.33 units
Fortuna - Clemson ML/LSU ML (+119, DK) - This Clemson line is down to 3, which is giving Georgia Tech a little too much credit, in my opinion. The public is fading the Tigers after a lackluster two weeks, but this is still arguably the most talented team in the ACC. As for LSU, which beat Clemson in Week 1, there’s simply no way these Tigers are falling to Florida for the second year in a row, especially at home. I kind of like both of these favorites at their numbers, but I love getting plus-money odds on pairing their moneylines together.
Wittenstein - Georgia ML/Georgia Tech +6.5 (+159, Caesars) - We’re going with a Georgia parlay! Gimme the Bulldogs to win, with most of my reasoning explained above, and the Yellow jackets to keep their game with Clemson within one possession. Backing two teams who I think will have big weeks at plus money.
Jacobson - 2-leg: Georgia Tech +3.5, Florida +7.5 (+263, BetRivers) - I see this as a correlated parlay, fading both Clemson and LSU after their Week 1 matchup. If Clemson stumbles in Atlanta earlier in the day, I would feel better about Florida hanging within the number later that night in Baton Rouge.
Season record: 4-2, +8.45 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - Arkansas State +21 (-110, Caesars) - This is the ultimate sandwich spot, as Iowa State is playing its fourth straight game after opening the season in Dublin. Eventually, that catches up to a program. And the Cyclones just beat rival Iowa and must be itching for next week’s bye to arrive after nonconference play. This is a tough trip to a solid Group of 5 program, one that has the rarest of luxuries at that level: a three-year starting QB in Jaylen Raynor. Jonesboro doesn’t often get visits from programs like Iowa State. The town will be rocking.
Wittenstein - Miami -17.5, (-110, Caesars) - We’re doing what our leader Brad Evans loves: Fading the Noise! Sure, USF pulled off a massive upset on the road in the Swamp against Florida last week, but now they’re up against another highly ranked team in Miami. As much as I respect the Bulls (more than the Chicago Bulls, to be honest), facing another far more talented team might finally break them. Miami is legit — especially in the trenches. We saw how they bullied a team like Notre Dame on the line in Week 1. If they could do that to the Irish, the Bulls are in for a long day. To me, the Hurricanes are a team that could make some noise in the playoff race, and I think they leave USF in the dust in a classic letdown spot for the Bulls.
Jacobson - Vanderbilt +4.5 (-110, BetMGM) - This is a unique setup with both South Carolina and Vanderbilt already having faced Virginia Tech. The Gamecocks won 24–11 on a neutral field in Week 1, while Vandy went into Lane Stadium at night and dominated the second half in a 44–20 victory. I wasn’t impressed with South Carolina’s offense once its opening-drive script wore off, and now we get Vandy QB Diego Pavia in the underdog role — a spot I like to back. Don’t be surprised if the Commodores knock off the AP No. 11 team outright.
Season record: 3-6, -3.15 units
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