CFB Forecast Week 13: A new twist on an old hit
USC and Oregon meet for the first time as Big Ten rivals. There's a ton at stake.
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 13 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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GAME OF THE WEEK — USC at Oregon
Fortuna - King Miller U78.5 rush yards (-115, Bet365): Miller, a redshirt freshman walk-on, has been a revelation for USC. But at some point, the Trojans’ lack of depth at running back has to catch up to them. Miller went under this total against a strong run defense at Notre Dame, and he just barely eclipsed it last week against a stout Iowa D, in a rain-soaked game where USC had to fight for every inch. Oregon’s run defense is similarly strong (21st nationally), and if the favored Ducks are playing from ahead, opportunities for Miller will be few and far between.
Wittenstein - USC +9.5 (-105, BetMGM): I know Oregon is “good” in the general sense, but I’m still not fully convinced that the Ducks are a super-special team. They’re coming off a large win over Minnesota where they covered a 27-point spread, but when they’ve gone against teams that can pose any type of threat, the games have typically been close. USC, on the other hand, has shown time and time again that it makes games competitive. As a dog at Notre Dame, the Trojans may have won if not for a poorly executed trick play that led to a turnover in the fourth quarter. And yet, in the terrible rainy and cold conditions of South Bend, USC still covered the 10.5. With USC’s offensive success-rate number in the top 10, I think we see a Trojans team that uses its offensive ability to stay with Oregon and cover this number.
Jacobson - USC +9.5 (-105, BetMGM): When I first looked at this matchup and the early point spread, USC was a strong candidate for my best bet of the week. I’ve been looking for opportunities to back the Trojans all season and fade Oregon in select spots — including two weeks ago when the Ducks were road favorites at Iowa. However, USC’s injury situation gives me pause for now. Standout safety Kamari Ramsey and left tackle Elijah Paige both left last week’s win over Iowa with injuries. Oregon is dealing with its own issues, as top receivers Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. missed last Friday’s game against Minnesota. With uncertainty on both sides at this point in the week, I want to wait and see where the number goes. If this climbs to USC +10 or better, I’ll consider betting the Trojans at that price.
Season record: 20-19, -0.50 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - Cincinnati ML (+115, consensus): I’m playing the spot here as much as anything. BYU is just 3-6-1 ATS in November Big 12 games, and 3-7 overall. Throw in the fact that the Cougars have won two games this season where their postgame win expectancy was less than 50 percent, per Bill Connelly — a stat that doesn’t include the Utah game, a Cougs win in which they were out-gained by more than 100 yards — and I’ll take the home Bearcats here in a primetime atmosphere that will be juiced up thanks to the morning presence of Big Noon Kickoff.
Wittenstein - Kansas ML (+165, Hard Rock): This bet is more of a fade on Iowa State than anything. This Cyclones team should really be riding a five-game losing streak after last week’s game against TCU. The ’Clones had one of the lowest postgame win expectancy numbers of Week 11 after needing a punt return touchdown to beat TCU. Yet, the team got that coveted sixth win before the bye and now faces a Kansas team off its bye looking for its sixth win of the season. I’ll take the underdog in a matchup against an ISU team that just seems … bad lately.
Jacobson - Pittsburgh ML (+120, Bet365): This is a small underdog, but since my first bet of the week was Pitt +3, I wanted to include the Panthers in the article in some capacity. I’m not putting much weight into Pitt’s 37-15 loss to Notre Dame, especially after head coach Pat Narduzzi downplayed its significance with ACC games against Georgia Tech and Miami up next — and with Pitt still very much alive in the conference title race. Outside of last week’s result, the Panthers have shown real improvement with freshman QB Mason Heintschel under center, and now he gets a favorable matchup against a Georgia Tech defense that has allowed 48 points to NC State and 34 to Boston College in its last two games. As good as Yellow Jackets QB Haynes King has been, he has no say in his team’s defensive issues. I like Pitt to bounce back in Atlanta on Saturday evening.
Season record: 13-22-0, +0.28 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - Hawaii +3 (-115, consensus): Fiction: Hawaii struggles on the mainland. Fact: The Rainbow Warriors are 2-2 away from home this year. UNLV raced to a 6-0 start but has come back to earth, and Dan Mullen’s squad is just 1-4 ATS in its last five. The Rebels needed double OT to hold off Utah State at home on Saturday and now have a quick Friday turnaround against a Hawaii team that is coming off an open date. That open date, by the way, was preceded by a 38-6 shellacking of first-place San Diego State. Timmy Chang’s squad is for real, and the ‘Bows will prove it once again in Sin City when they improve their ATS record to 8-3.
Wittenstein - Florida Atlantic Team Total under 29.5 (-117, BetRivers): This is the battle of the fast-paced team against a slower-paced team, and I think the slower-paced team will win out. We know that FAU is one of the fastest teams in the nation, averaging a staggering 77.8 plays per game, which ranks No. 2 nationally. Yet, the Owls don’t move far, ranking 78th in yards per play. UConn comes in with a top-40 defense in yards per play, and on top of the Huskies’ bottom-40 pace, I think we see an FAU team that won’t reach 30 points.
Jacobson - UTSA +2.5 (-110, BetMGM): Last week I backed East Carolina in this section, and the Pirates came through with a late touchdown to knock off Memphis 31–27 at home. Now I’m looking to fade ECU in a potential letdown spot on the road at UTSA. The Roadrunners are a solid 5–5 team, with their losses coming against opponents like Texas A&M, North Texas and South Florida. In their last home game, they handled Tulane 48–26 — an impressive result considering the Green Wave enter Week 13 as the American’s only ranked team. I like Jeff Traylor’s Roadrunners getting points at home and believe they have a great chance to win this game outright.
Season record: 19-17,+1.26 units
PARLAY PLAY (2-3 legs)
Fortuna - 2-leg: Duke ML and Georgia Tech ML (+147, FanDuel): Am I really betting on two ACC favorites? In this economy?! Yeah, I am. I can’t get past the price on this one. Duke and UNC, for completely different reasons, have been among the most disappointing teams in the country. But Duke is clearly much more talented. (Plus, its coach wasn’t at a cheerleading competition this week.) As for the second leg, I think Georgia Tech gets back on track at home in primetime. I know that defense is a hot mess, but this team is still in the driver’s seat for a Playoff spot, as it clinches an ACC title game berth with the win. I worry about the effect of last week on Pitt, too. Even if he didn’t mean it, Pat Narduzzi’s comments about the Notre Dame game not mattering put a whole new kind of pressure on his team this week — especially on a freshman QB in Mason Heintschel who is coming off the first poor performance of his career.
Wittenstein - 2-Leg Alt Line: Iowa Team Total Over 26.5, Texas -6.5 (+141, DraftKings): After Iowa played two games in a row against top-tier Big Ten talent, I think we see an Hawkeyes team explode offensively back at home against one of the conference’s worse defenses in Michigan State. Texas should take care of business at home against Arkansas, but just to be safe, we’ll take it under a touchdown.
Jacobson - 2-leg: USC +10.5, Kentucky +10.5 (+209, DraftKings): I’m playing alternate spreads on both teams, who are currently listed as 9.5-point underdogs in the main market. I explained above why I’m interested in USC and I also think an improved Kentucky team can cause problems for a Vanderbilt squad facing all the pressure at 8–2.
Season record: 13-26, +1.88 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - Maryland +14.5 (-120, HardRock): Michigan is just 3-7 ATS, including 1-5 ATS in its last six games with an opponent cover margin of 8.125. The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS on the road. Yes, they are 8-2 overall, but don’t let the record fool you: Trade in some of this year’s Big Ten opponents (Nebraska, Wisconsin, Purdue) for last year’s (Illinois, Oregon, Indiana) and we are talking about yet another 7-5 football team. This is not a particularly strong Maryland team, to be clear, but the Terps are still alive for a bowl game and got the added boost of learning earlier this week that Mike Locksley will be back for Year 8 as head coach. Maybe that’s meaningless, but similar news sure helped Wisconsin when the Badgers beat Washington just days after the Badgers announced that Luke Fickell would return. Either way, this should be closer than a two-touchdown game in College Park, especially with Michigan’s attention likely turned to Ohio State next week.
Wittenstein - Oklahoma Team Total Under 25.5 (-117, BetRivers): If you just glance below, you’ll see that Nate and I both love the Mizzou-Oklahoma game to be a boring one offensively. Coming off a huge road night win in Tuscaloosa, the Sooners have to turn around and play at home in an 11 a.m. local time start. That typically is a bad spot for the home team. The visiting Tigers are coming in ready to fight and will be all business by kickoff in the morning. They bring in a top-10 defensive success rate unit, per CFBGraphs, and their pass defense might cause some issues. Gimme a focused and ready Mizzou team to give a Sooners team fresh off its biggest win of the year some issues in an early morning kickoff spot.
Jacobson - Missouri-Oklahoma Under 42.5 (-110, BetMGM): Oklahoma pulled off a stunner in Week 12 at Alabama, giving the Sooners a clear path to the College Football Playoff if they can beat Missouri and LSU at home over the next two weeks. But this offense still lacks punch; they produced just 212 total yards in Tuscaloosa and were lifted by a pick-six and two key Crimson Tide fumbles in the 23–21 upset. I want to fade QB John Mateer and the Sooners’ offense here against a Missouri defense with a strong front seven. Oklahoma is ranked No. 8 because of its stout defense, and this matchup will be very challenging for a Missouri offense that is either starting a third-string freshman QB in Matt Zollers or Beau Pribula four weeks removed from suffering a dislocated ankle. I’m also considering the first-half under in this game with the idea of a conservative approach from both teams.
Season record: 22-17, +4.23 units
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