CFB Forecast Week 12: Can Texas chase down the Dawgs?
The SEC takes center stage on Saturday.
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 1010 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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GAME OF THE WEEK -- Texas at Georgia
Fortuna - Texas O 20.5 (-115, Bet365): Is Texas back? No, Texas is not back. But the Longhorns have been playing much better offensively as of late, putting up 34 points in three quarters against Vanderbilt and 38 in regulation at Mississippi State. In fact, the Horns have topped 20.5 points in all but two games this season, with one of those two coming all the way back in Week 1 at Ohio State and its top-ranked defense. Arch Manning has been playing better and is coming off an open date. And this is not a vintage Georgia defense. The Bulldogs are solid on that side of the ball, but they’re also 58th against the pass, 122nd in sacks, 129th in tackles for loss and 124th in takeaways. Points will be easier to come by than usual between the hedges, and I expect Texas to do enough to eclipse this team total here.
Wittenstein - 1H Under 23.5 (-115, DraftKings): This is quite a simple handicap, really: We’ve got two teams that play good first-half defense but rarely start fast. Georgia’s rush defense will force Arch to throw early in this one, and Texas already struggles to score early on, ranking 64th in first half points per game. It’ll be like looking in the mirror for Georgia, which will likely struggle with a Texas rush defense that ranks No. 2 in EPA/rush, per CFBGraphs. With so much on the line and Texas’s defense facing an inconsistent Georgia team, I expect points to be hard to come by early.
Jacobson - Texas +6 (-110, DraftKings): It’s been a rollercoaster season for Texas, but the Longhorns might be starting to turn the corner after a win over Vanderbilt before their Week 11 bye. Texas won 34-31, though they led 34-10 entering the fourth quarter before the Commodores found success against a prevent defense. Georgia is comfortably in the College Football Playoff field, but the Bulldogs are a few plays away from having multiple additional losses this season. I believe Arch Manning and the Texas offense can find enough success to stay within the number against an underachieving Georgia defense. There’s also a scenario where, even if Georgia builds a multi-score lead, Texas will keep pushing late to impress the CFP selection committee. The Longhorns close the season against what will likely be an 11-0 Texas A&M team, and a win in that rivalry game could keep them in the Playoff conversation if this week’s game in Athens is competitive.
Season record: 19-17, +0.65 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - Tulsa (+115, Bet365): Is Tulsa good? Not particularly. Have the Golden Hurricane lost five straight? They have. But they’re at home, where they took Temple to OT in their last outing. And, more importantly, they’re hosting Oregon State, which is coming off one of the most perplexing losses of the season, a home loss to Sam Houston State in which they had a postgame win expectancy of 95.5 percent, per Bill Connelly. That may mean that the balls are bound to bounce the Beavers’ way this weekend, but with last week being interim coach Robb Akey’s first loss, and with this being a 2,000-mile trip — OSU has just one game after this one, a rematch at Wazzu — I see the air coming out of the Beavs’ balloon and Tulsa snapping its skid at home.
Wittenstein - TCU ML (+165, Hard Rock): Listen, I don’t necessarily feel bad for Sonny Dykes, but TCU’s loss last week off a punt return TD from Iowa State had to have stung. But now I love backing a team coming off a game it should’ve won but didn’t because of unusual circumstances. The Horned Frogs will surely be motivated after that stinging loss last weekend.. They now face a BYU team that suddenly looks mortal after a wild October run featuring wins that may not have reflected their true ability. Expect a solid TCU team, undervalued by the market, to keep this one close against a BYU squad that could be regressing.
Jacobson - Michigan State ML (+240, ESPN BET): I view Penn State’s trip to Michigan State as a high-variance matchup between two teams still searching for their first Big Ten win as we enter mid-November. The Nittany Lions are coming off a two-game stretch against the nation’s top-two teams and nearly pulled off an upset as a two-touchdown underdog last week against Indiana. I’m not sure how motivated they’ll be after an excruciating loss in what’s already a lost season. Michigan State enters off a bye and has quietly been playing better as the roster gets healthier. The Spartans were unlucky losers against Minnesota in their last game with new QB Alessio Milivojevic under center. If Penn State’s home-run effort under interim coach Terry Smith came last week, there’s a real chance Michigan State gets off the mat and picks up its first conference win here.
Season record: 12-20-0, +1.13 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - San Diego State ML (-140, Hard Rock Bet): The Aztecs laid a stinker last week at Hawaii, but they remain tied for first atop the Mountain West Conference as they return home to face Boise State … which just happens to be the team they are tied with at 4-1 in league play. Though the Broncos are coming off an open date, they will be without QB Maddux Madsen, the conference’s preseason player of the year who went down in his last outing with a leg injury. The result without Madsen was ugly: a 30-7 home loss to Fresno State. Max Cutforth, a former walk-on, will get the call for the Broncos this weekend. The line itself (-2.5) is awfully fishy given that information, so I’ll play the moneyline here to cover my bases.
Wittenstein - Air Force +7.5 (-120, FanDuel): This bet is mostly led by fading UConn after winning as an underdog. After the Huskies’ win over Duke last weekend, I think we’re getting them at a premium as more than a touchdown favorite. Sure, Air Force’s defense might literally be the worst out there, but its offense should allow it to keep up with a UConn team that might not fully be over its win over Duke.
Jacobson - East Carolina -2.5 (-115, BetMGM): Most of the attention in the American has been on teams like USF, Tulane, North Texas, Navy and Memphis, but East Carolina has quietly put together a strong season with its only losses coming against NC State, BYU and the aforementioned Tulane. Now the Pirates have a chance to make a statement against one of the conference’s perceived top teams as Memphis comes to town. The Tigers find themselves in a tough spot just a week after being listed as the Group of 6 representative in the first College Football Playoff bracket. QB Brendon Lewis is clearly not 100 percent, as evidenced by Memphis’ 38-32 loss to Tulane last Friday. Meanwhile, head coach Ryan Silverfield’s name has been swirling in the coaching carousel — with Arkansas rumors in particular — raising fair questions about how focused he is on the job at hand. I’ll take the Pirates laying a short number at home.
Season record: 17-16,+0.46 units
PARLAY PLAY (2-3 legs)
Fortuna - Louisville ML and Notre Dame ML (+111, BetRivers): It’s a short week and Louisville has to be chomping at the bit to get back in the win column after a letdown against Cal. Throw in the fact that the Cardinals are technically still alive for the ACC title game, and motivation won’t be an issue here. The question is if Clemson found something to build off in last week’s domination of FSU. That may explain why this line has been falling all week, but I still think the Cards at least win outright at home. As for Notre Dame, well, this number has been going in the opposite direction of the Louisville game, and with good reason: I fail to see Pitt slowing down this Irish offense, which certainly won’t be taking the Panthers lightly with “College GameDay” on-hand. The spread is high, but the outcome should not be in doubt. Give me the Cards and the Irish, a Friday night-Saturday noon special.
Wittenstein - Michigan State +7.5, USC ML (+124, DraftKings): As Nate highlighted above, this is a great spot for the Spartans against a spiraling Penn State team on the road. And I think USC should take care of an Iowa team traveling west after a killer of a loss to Oregon at home.
Jacobson - SGP: Oklahoma +6, Under 46 in Oklahoma-Alabama (+235, Caesars): This is a correlated parlay in the other marquee SEC matchup. If Oklahoma covers, it’ll likely be because of its defense, which points toward a lower-scoring game in Tuscaloosa.
Season record: 12-24, +1.53 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - Penn State -6.5 (-120, Hard Rock Bet): This one opened at 8.5 and has fallen all week. I know Penn State has yet to beat a power conference team. But this roster remains much more talented than Michigan State’s. And judging off last week, these guys are still playing hard. Yes, this could be a letdown spot for a Nittany Lions team that was seconds away from beating the No. 2 team in the country, especially against a Spartans team that is coming off an open date. But interim coach Terry Smith’s three games have been at Ohio State (No. 1 team in the country), vs. Indiana (No. 2) and at Iowa (arguably the toughest place to play in the Big Ten). There’s a decent chance that Penn State would have lost all three of those games even if things had gone smoother in the six games before those. As long as this team still has a pulse — and it is fair to wonder if that remains possible after another gutting loss — Penn State should roll.
Wittenstein - Alabama -6 (-108, DraftKings): This might be my most square-looking Best Bet of the season. But you know what? Sometimes it’s hip to be square. I know Bama can be sluggish at times, but I just don’t trust this Oklahoma team. The Sooners beat a Tennessee team that’s been meh this season. They’ve lost to Texas and Ole Miss. I can’t really find a game that tickles my fancy on believing in them. The Tide, meanwhile, seem to be improving a little each week. Defensively, they look ferocious, and I’m not sure the Sooners are capable of consistently getting points on the board against them. I think we see the Crimson Tide glide to an easy win at home.
Jacobson - TCU +4.5 (-110, FanDuel): It took nine games, but regression finally hit BYU last Saturday in Lubbock. Texas Tech dominated 29-7 and it could’ve been even worse if the Red Raiders hadn’t settled for five field goals. If they had finished drives, this week’s point spread against TCU would likely be shorter. That number also might’ve been tighter if TCU had held onto a 17-6 fourth-quarter lead against Iowa State instead of giving up a late punt return touchdown in a game they controlled statistically. There’s some concern about motivation for Sonny Dykes’ group after its third Big 12 loss, but QB Josh Hoover should be plenty focused as he looks to build on his résumé for NFL scouts. I’ll back the Horned Frogs to stay within the number in Provo on Saturday night.
Season record: 20-16, +3.31 units
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