CFB Forecast Week 11: The Big 12's best clash in Lubbock
We're not going to let bad beats rock our confidence as we hit the home stretch here, right?
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 1010 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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GAME OF THE WEEK -- BYU at Texas Tech
Fortuna - Texas Tech -6.5 1H (-105, DK): I really think Texas Tech wins this game convincingly, but the money pouring in on the BYU side gives me pause. So I’ll take the Red Raiders early, as I expect them to ride the “College GameDay” energy to a strong first-half performance. They have shut out four of their first five home opponents in the first half. Granted, the competition has been abysmal outside of Kansas — and that game was only 21-17 TTU at halftime — but Lubbock has been kind to the home team this year. And the Cougars, bless their hearts, have once again had a bit of a late-game Houdini act carry them to a second straight 8-0 start (they started 9-0 last year). They have trailed at halftime in their last three road games before pulling out wins. So we’ll go with TTU to lead by a TD or more at the break here.
Wittenstein - BYU +10.5 (-105, Hard Rock): Man, I’m going to be taken kicking and screaming to make this bet because I really want to hate BYU. The Cougars have won some weird games they easily could’ve lost and don’t look particularly dominant in. But … they just keep playing well and I’m done resisting. The Cougs have won and covered their last two games as underdogs. They’ve gone on the road to Iowa State and Arizona and escaped with wins, so another trip to Lubbock shouldn’t pose much trouble. Sometimes teams just figure out how to win sloppy games, and BYU seems to be in that class. In this, we don’t even need a win. We really don’t even need it to be particularly close. This line is certainly stinky with an undefeated team being a double-digit dog. But you know what? I’m going to take the bait and hope BYU’s weird, voodoo luck continues.
Jacobson - Texas Tech -10 (-105, MGM): I’ve been wrong about BYU plenty this season after expecting major regression following its fortunate 2024 campaign. The Cougars’ magic has carried over, with recent wins over Arizona, Utah and Iowa State — all of which could’ve easily gone the other way. If you’ve been following along this season, it won’t surprise you that I’m fading BYU again, especially against the best team in the Big 12. The spread might look a little steep, but I don’t see BYU’s offensive line holding up against Texas Tech’s ferocious defensive front led by David Bailey. With QB Behren Morton back healthy, this could get ugly in Lubbock.
Season record: 17-16, -0.30 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - Stanford ML (+235, DK): There were several enticing options here: Kentucky as a home dawg vs. Florida, Nebraska as a dawg at UCLA, FSU as a dawg at Clemson. But we may as well take the biggest swing of that group here and get the biggest potential payout, so we’ll go with the Cardinal, who are 7.5-point underdogs at UNC. Look, Bill Belichick’s group has actually gotten better throughout the course of the season, and Stanford is not particularly good. Frank Reich, for the record, is only 1-2 all-time against Belichick in the NFL. But this feels like a classic overreaction line for the Tar Heels coming off a win. They have no business being a TD favorite over anyone. Sprinkle a little on the Cardinal here and avert your eyes.
Wittenstein - Indiana -20.5 (+145, DraftKings): Indiana has gone on the road to a hostile environment and cleaned up when it played Oregon. I think the Hoosiers do the same this weekend against Penn State. The Nittany Lions gave a full-throated effort against Ohio State last week but still lost by 24. The Hoosiers are on a mission, and that mission includes pummeling whichever team gets in their way. Penn State’s offense will likely struggle against a swarming IU defense, while Fernando Mendoza should have little trouble carving up a lackluster PSU unit. Gimme an IU blowout in Happy Valley!
Jacobson - Boston College ML (+350, BetMGM): Two weeks ago, I faded SMU in this section and it paid off, so I’m going back to the well. Since that loss at Wake Forest in Week 9, SMU has been riding high, with head coach Rhett Lashlee signing an extension and the Mustangs following that up by upsetting Miami in a storm-the-field win. Now I’m expecting a letdown as they travel northeast for an early kickoff in Chestnut Hill. Boston College has been a major disappointment in Bill O’Brien’s second season, sitting at 1-8, but the Eagles have shown signs of life in their last two games against Louisville and Notre Dame. O’Brien’s fiery exchange with a reporter this week might not have been the best look, but I’m banking on the Eagles to rally and show some fight in the Red Bandanna Game.
Season record: 12-17-0, +4.13 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - USF -13.5 (-110, consensus): The Bulls are coming off a crushing loss at Memphis. But they are also coming off an open date. And everything is still right in front of them, as they are likely to make the American title game if they win out. With no Group of 5 program in the initial CFP rankings, the Bulls have as good of a chance as any G5 team to make the Playoff. They have covered every game they have won, with a cover margin of 15.83 points. And UTSA might be feeling itself just a little too much after routing Tulane last week, with Jeff Traylor spiking the football verbally afterward. Take USF at home.
Wittenstein - UConn +9.5 (-110, BetMGM): By now, you should know I’m a lover of a good situational spot. And there are at least two in this one. First, the Blue Devils are coming off a big road win at Clemson that ended with a two-point conversion with 40 seconds left to seal it. After that emotional ending, Duke now faces a quick turnaround. With a huge Top-25 matchup against Virginia looming next week, the Blue Devils find themselves sandwiched between two major tests — and in the middle sits a road trip to “lowly” UConn, a smaller nonconference program that’s probably gotten very little of Duke’s attention. Duke just wants to get in, get out and stay healthy without showing too much. The Huskies, meanwhile, relish the chance to beat up on bigger programs. With Duke unlikely to open up its playbook or risk injuries, UConn has a real shot to keep this one close.
Jacobson - Temple +7 (-112, DraftKings): This is a good spot to fade Army coming off an emotional, last-second win over Air Force on a game-winning field goal. Now the Black Knights have to regroup against a Temple team that’s been quietly competitive under first-year head coach K.C. Keeler. The Owls already played a service academy tough earlier this season, falling 32-31 to Navy in a game they arguably should’ve won. I’ll take the points with Temple in a potential letdown spot for Army.
Season record: 14-16, -2.54 units
PARLAY PLAY (2-3 legs)
Fortuna - 2-leg: Georgia ML and Vanderbilt ML (-115, BetMGM): Believe it or not, I’m actually more confident in Vanderbilt here than I am Georgia. Yes, even without Hugh Freeze to kick around, I think Diego Pavia and the boys get it done against Auburn, as they simply have to be motivated by that low initial CFP ranking (16th) and can’t take anything for granted. UGA, meanwhile, may have its work cut out against a Mississippi State team that is much better than its record indicates (1-4 in SEC play). This isn’t one of Kirby Smart’s most talented teams, but it may be his most resilient, as strong second half after strong second half continues to illustrate.
Wittenstein - Oregon ML, Clemson ML (+156, ESPNBet): Iowa is a seemingly trendy dog, but truthfully, I think Oregon can win big just by sheer talent. Clemson is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Duke of all teams. I think FSU’s win last week was more of a bad spot for Wake, so I think Clemson takes advantage.
Jacobson - SGP: Auburn +7.5, Under 45.5 in Auburn-Vanderbilt (+210, BetMGM): I’ve already bet the under in this game because I trust Auburn’s defense to still play well after firing Hugh Freeze on Sunday and promoting DC D.J. Durkin. If you believe in a one-game bump after a coaching change, the Tigers could be able to keep this one close — making this parlay a correlated play.
Season record: 10-23, -0.03 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - Indiana -7 1H (-125, Bet365): I’ll be covering this game so I’ll stay away, but boy is this line eye candy. Curt Cignetti never lets his foot off the gas, and a trip back to his home state against a program he probably doesn’t care much for — remember, he went to West Virginia — will only further his edge. This is Penn State’s first home game without James Franklin, and while interim Terry Smith is doing his best, he remains winless. The Nittany Lions are 3-5 and have a remaining schedule of at MSU, Nebraska and at Rutgers, meaning they could still get bowl-eligible. But at what point do the players start making business decisions amid a season that’s gone off the rails? Look at this boots-on-the-ground takeaway from State College on Wednesday.
Wittenstein - Mississippi State 1H +5.5 (-110, Hard Rock): Death, taxes and fading Georgia in the first half of SEC games. Weirdly, this has been very profitable, with Kirby Smart and Co. going 1-5 ATS in the first half against SEC teams this season. And if you’re an avid reader of this here column, you know I LOVE a team that fights. And Mississippi State? They’re the Rocky of the SEC right now. Eyes glued shut, sweat soaking their hair, cuts all over their face — yet no quit in them. At home under the lights, against a team that tends to sleepwalk through first halves, the Bulldogs (of Mississippi State) can not only keep it close but might even take a lead into the locker room.
Jacobson - Iowa +6.5 (-110, Caesars): There’s a perception that Oregon is one of the best teams in the country, and while that might be true, the Ducks haven’t beaten anyone to fully justify it. Their late-September double-overtime win at Penn State looked impressive at the time, but it’s fair to wonder why they couldn’t close that game out more convincingly after jumping to a two-touchdown lead. We’ll learn a lot more about the Ducks in November with a tougher schedule ahead, starting this week at Iowa. The Hawkeyes appear to be trending upward with veteran transfer QB Mark Gronowski getting more comfortable in the offense. Iowa is 6-2, and its most impressive performance might actually be a 20-15 loss to Indiana, which was the Hoosiers’ only game this season decided by single digits. The total has dropped due to potential bad weather in Iowa City, which only adds to the appeal of Iowa as a home underdog in what should be a low-scoring, grind-it-out game.
Season record: 18-15, +2.41 units
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