CFB Forecast Week 10: Will it get weird in Austin?
Vanderbilt-Texas highlights our Week 10 slate.
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps — Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson — slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite Week 10 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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GAME OF THE WEEK — Vanderbilt at Texas
Fortuna - Texas -2.5 (-110, DraftKings): Somehow, this is Texas’ first SEC home game. It took until November, but better late than never. For as underwhelming as the Longhorns have been this season, their Playoff hopes are still alive. With the uncertainty surrounding Arch Manning’s health, you’re getting the Horns at a decent price here. But truth be told, I’m not sure his status will make much of a difference in this game, as I expect defense to rule the day for the home team.
Wittenstein - Vanderbilt Team Total Under 21.5 (-120, FanDuel): We rolled with the Vandy TT under last week, and we’re rolling with it again. Texas has its first true home game against an SEC opponent this season, and I think its defense will be ready. Mizzou showed how you can slow down Diego Pavia and company, and I think the Longhorns take that blueprint and run with it. The Texas defense ranks top 30 in defensive scramble rate and 5th in quality drive rate allowed, per CFBGraphs. This is a team that makes you work for your yardage, and after an embarrassing outing last week where the Horns surrendered 38 points to Mississippi State, I think Texas comes into this one with an aggressive mindset — ready to take down a top-10 team at home.
Jacobson - Texas ML (-135, ESPN Bet): I like the price, situation and matchup for Texas here. In terms of price, this is a drastic adjustment based on Texas’ underwhelming season and Vanderbilt coming into this game with its only loss coming at Alabama. I think this spread is discounted given Texas’ talent edge and home-field advantage in Austin. The spot also sets up nicely — Vanderbilt is coming off back-to-back emotional home wins over LSU and Missouri, and it’s fair to question whether it can sustain that level of play on the road. I like Texas’ defense to limit Vanderbilt’s offense much like Missouri did, aside from one explosive 80-yard run. If you’re looking to back Texas, I’d recommend waiting for confirmation that Arch Manning is good to go after taking a hit last week against Mississippi State.
Season record: 15-15, -1.20 units
BARKING ‘DOG (One true underdog at + money that earns a Milkbone)
Fortuna - Duke ML (+143, BetRivers): Clemson has lost five straight home games against power conference teams. To put that into context: Clemson went 62-5 at home against power conference teams from 2011 until last year’s Louisville game, which started this home losing streak. Why should this contest against a Duke team that is better than its 4-3 record indicates be any different? Take the Blue Devils in Death Valley.
Wittenstein - Mississippi State ML (+170, BetMGM): Call me Jordan Belfort because I’m sitting on this Mississippi State team screaming, “I’m not leaving!” The Bulldogs fight, and I’ll always back a team that shows some fight against one that looks dead in the water like Arkansas. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS this season. Victory has eluded them for a bit as they’ve navigated a tough October schedule, but against a team that just seems lifeless like Arkansas, I think they can finally grab that coveted W.
Jacobson - California ML (+164, DraftKings): This is mostly a fade of No. 15 Virginia, which has found ways to squeak out wins in each of its last three games. The Cavaliers won at Louisville in overtime on Oct. 4 thanks to two defensive touchdowns, edged Washington State 22-20 two weeks ago and survived North Carolina 17-16 in overtime last week. Those are not sustainable ways to win and now they travel three time zones to face a better-than-expected California team led by freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. The talk about Virginia being a team that could crash the ACC championship game is going to end this week in Berkley.
Season record: 10-16-0, +2.00 units
SMALL CONFERENCE CASH (Favorite off-the-radar wager NOT from the ACC, B1G, Big 12 or SEC)
Fortuna - San Diego State -10.5 (-110, consensus): The Aztecs are rolling, having won five straight games. They are 6-1 both SU and ATS, with all but one of those wins coming by at least 21 points. This will be their first home game in nearly a month (Oct. 3). They have the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense, and they’re facing the nation’s No. 113 scoring offense. And by the way, they could be playing for the Group of 5’s CFP spot if they keep this up.
Wittenstein - Washington State -3.5 (-110, DraftKings): What exactly does Oregon State have to play for at this point? The Beavers have lost their head coach, they’re 1–7, and there’s no bowl game in sight. Now they face a Wazzu team that took Ole Miss down to the wire, lost to UVA essentially because of a safety, and is still fighting for a bowl spot at 4–4. Not to mention, the Cougars are just better than Oregon State. I think they’re more than three points better — especially if they can control the pace.
Jacobson - New Mexico +3.5 (-110, BetMGM): I was hoping for a better number, but I’m not passing up an opportunity to fade UNLV as a favorite. Dan Mullen’s team is a very misleading 6-1, with recent wins coming against Wyoming — a game that included two blocked punts returned for touchdowns — and a below average Air Force team it barely escaped, 51-48. The Rebels were finally exposed in their last game, a 56-31 loss to Boise State, and I’m not expecting a bounce-back performance, especially from their defense. New Mexico has quietly put together a strong season under first-year head coach Jason Eck and I expect this one to stay close throughout. I’ll take the points with the Lobos.
Season record: 12-15, -4.44 units
PARLAY PLAY (2-3 legs)
Fortuna - 2-leg: Georgia ML, Tennessee ML (+129, ESPNBet): Georgia isn’t losing to Florida, although the line movement has scared me enough to not bet the Dawgs with the points. So I’ll pair them with fellow SEC team Tennessee, which gets a potentially vulnerable Oklahoma team that is coming off two losses in three games and has a QB in John Mateer who simply hasn’t looked the same since he came back from injury. In a likely Playoff elimination game, back the home team in front of a juiced-up crowd in Knoxville. Let’s not forget the Josh Heupel-Oklahoma factor here, either.
Wittenstein - Maryland Team Total over 13.5, USC ML (+164, FanDuel): As much as I love IU, I think Maryland at home off a bye can easily muster two touchdowns against the Hoosiers. I’m hoping USC covers (see below), but even if not, I think the Trojans are more than capable of grabbing a win here in a bounce-back spot against an inferior Nebraska team.
Jacobson - 2-leg: Kansas State +7.5, Oklahoma +3.5 (FanDuel, +233): I like Kansas State as a home underdog against a Texas Tech team dealing with some quarterback injury concerns, and I’ll pair them with Oklahoma, who was strongly considered for this week’s Sledgehammer Special catching points against Tennessee.
Season record: 10-20, +1.97 units
SLEDGEHAMMER SPECIAL (Best Bet)
Fortuna - Cal +4.5 (-108, DraftKings): Virginia has been playing with fire this season. The Cavaliers are one of three teams to not lose a fumble, joining Miami and Texas A&M. The difference is that The U has fumbled twice and A&M four times. UVA? Nine. Yes, nine! How in the world does a team fumble nine times and not turn it over once? At some point, luck runs out. The Hoos have won three games in which their postgame win expectancy was less than 50 percent, per Bill Connelly. Here’s guessing the football gods catch up to them Saturday, three time zones away. (By that same principle, I’ve won my last seven sledgehammer specials, so something has to give here.)
Wittenstein - USC -6 (-110, Caesars): If this were earlier in the season, I might say Nebraska could be a good play. But the Trojans have done enough Midwest traveling by now that it’s practically routine for them. Last week’s loss to Notre Dame surely lit a fire under them, and this time they don’t have to deal with Jeremiyah Love in the backfield. Nebraska, meanwhile, has just one truly solid win this season — Week 1 at Cincinnati. Since then, the Cornhuskers’ résumé features wins over an MSU team that’s regressed by the week, a struggling Maryland squad, and a so-so Northwestern team they got at home. I think USC’s offense will simply be too much for Nebraska to handle. Give me the Trojans to grab a comfortable road win in middle America.
Jacobson - Florida +4 first half (-115, Caesars): I’m expecting a spirited effort from Florida in this rivalry game against Georgia, which will be the Gators’ first outing since Billy Napier was fired ahead of the bye week. It’s always tricky to predict how a team will respond after a coaching change, but I’d expect Florida to come out motivated, with players looking to put good tape together whether they plan to stay in Gainesville or explore the transfer portal. Even though Florida’s offense has struggled for much of the season, the defense has held up well and interim coach Billy Gonzales has said all the right things in preparation for this one in Jacksonville. I prefer a first half bet because Georgia’s defense has been vulnerable early in games. I can see QB DJ Lagway and the Gators’ offense finding some early success before Kirby Smart makes his usual halftime adjustments. Florida could fade late if Georgia settles in, so I’ll back the Gators to play their best football in the opening 30 minutes.
Season record: 17-13, +3.61 units
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