CFB Forecast, semifinal edition: Who will play for it all?
As important, for betting purposes: Which players will make the biggest difference?
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps — Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson — slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite CFP Round 3 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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FIESTA BOWL: Miami vs. Ole Miss
Fortuna - Trinidad Chambliss over 258.5 passing yards (-115, HardRock Bet): I was surprised at how high some of the SEC passing over-unders were in the quarterfinals, and I’m surprised at how low this SEC passing O/U is in the semifinal. Make sure you shop around for the best price here, as there is a wide range of Chambliss numbers available to bet on, though none that I could find better than HardRock’s 258.5 here. Chambliss has gone above this total in each of his last five games, and in 10 of his 12 starts. There are so many variables with this Ole Miss team in its current state that it is tough to bet on the Rebels either way. But the one constant is Chambliss, who figures to air it out even more if Miami can bottle up the Rebels’ rushing attack the way the Hurricanes have against virtually everyone this season.
Wittenstein - Ole Miss Team Total under 24.5 (-125, theScore Bet): I got hit fading the Rebels last week so might as well run it back! The Miami defensive line is SCARY. Scary, and playing its best football. That’s a lethal combo. Everyone watched Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss put on a magic show with his world-famous escape act against Georgia. Will he be able to do the same against Miami’s front? To quote Tony Romo: “Ohhhh, I don’t know about that one, Jim!” I think Ole Miss runs into some issues with its offensive illusions in this one. The Canes rank No. 5 in defensive quality drive rate and are top-15 in scramble EPA defense, per CFB Graphs. They get pressure on QBs better than almost anyone and don’t let them scramble for much when they escape. Add in the “will they, won’t they” act we now have to play with Ole Miss assistants’ game participation, and I think we’ll look back at the Rebels’ win against Georgia as their one final stand at sticking it to Lane Kiffin. This weekend, they’ll likely meet their match.
Jacobson - Under 26.5 first half (-114, FanDuel): My approach in this game is to find a way to bet against Ole Miss’ offense given the unprecedented situation in Oxford. The Rebels are on an unexpected Playoff run without their head coach from the regular season, as Lane Kiffin left for LSU before postseason play. Kiffin is bringing offensive assistants with him, but has allowed them to finish the season at Ole Miss up to this point. Now that the Rebels are in the semifinals, it creates an awkward dynamic where it’s unclear which coaches are fully focused on game preparation and which are doing double duty — preparing for Miami on a short turnaround while also helping Kiffin recruit players who have entered the transfer portal. The best unit on the field Thursday night in Glendale will be Miami’s defense, which is coming off impressive performances against Texas A&M and Ohio State, especially in the trenches. I expect a slower start, with Miami’s offense looking to establish the run and an Ole Miss offense that may not be fully prepared for the test it’s about to face.
PEACH BOWL: Oregon vs. Indiana
Fortuna - Dante Moore over 2.5 rushing yards (-115, Bet365): This is a deceivingly low total, one that Moore has eclipsed in 10 of 14 games this season. The problem is that sack yardage counts against Moore here, and the first time around against Indiana, he was sacked six times, finishing with -27 rushing yards. The Hoosiers can get after him, but I expect the Ducks to be more intentional in the QB run game this time around. Jordon Davison is out with a reported broken clavicle. Jayden Lamar and Makhi Hughes are transferring. That running back room is decimated. Fortunately, the Ducks still have an O-line that was a finalist for the Joe Moore Award, and all it takes is for Moore to break off one big run to withstand the yardage he’ll likely lose from sacks in this game.
Wittenstein - Indiana -3.5 (-105, Hard Rock): C’mon now. You really think I’m not taking the Hoosiers at this point? Sure, the bias cuts through this pick like a Curt Cignetti death stare, but I want you to look me in the eyes and tell me that IU has flaws. Anywhere. Up to this point, what has IU done to make you think this game will go differently than the other 14? The Hoosiers play nearly mistake-free football, frustrate opponents on defense, and force teams to make big plays in key moments while playing from behind. They have the Heisman-winning QB who’s shown time and time again this season that he’s good at learning from his mistakes (if you wanted to play the second game against Oregon this season narrative), and they have a coach who’s proven there’s no team he can’t game plan for. At this point, the only hope for opponents is that IU does something it hasn’t done all season: make self-inflicted errors and execute a poor game plan. While getting over the key number of 3 here isn’t ideal, I’ll take under the other semi-key number of 4 and hope IU does what it’s done almost all season long — including against these very Ducks — and win against the number.
Jacobson - Oregon +3.5 (-105, BetMGM): It’s intimidating to bet against Curt Cignetti and Indiana, but I don’t believe the gap between these teams is more than a field goal on a neutral field in Atlanta. When these teams met on Oct. 11, Oregon was a 7-point home favorite in a game in which Indiana announced itself as a national title contender with a 30-20 win in Eugene. Indiana’s power rating has obviously climbed over the last three months, but this Oregon team is also better than the version we saw in October, especially now that the Ducks are healthier for the Playoff. With a low total of 46.5, I’m inclined to side with the underdog getting more than a field goal in a game where I believe the winner will ultimately go on to win the national championship.
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