CFB Forecast, quarterfinal edition: Ohio State begins its title defense
Happy New Year to all of us!
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps — Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson — slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite CFP Round 2 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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Cotton Bowl: Miami vs. Ohio State
Fortuna - Miami +9.5 (-109, BetRivers): Call me crazy but I could see Miami pulling the outright upset in this one. I won’t go that far with a bet, but I’ll take the points, even if I was hoping for this spread to reach double-digits at some point. This Ohio State team will probably win it all this season, but it’s not blowing teams out. Miami’s defensive line has the horsepower to get after Julian Sayin, especially with all of the uncertainty at the right guard spot for the Buckeyes. I don’t know if I trust Carson Beck and the offense to score the two or three TDs that they’ll need to win this game, but I think as long as they protect the football, they’ll keep it close and give themselves a chance.
Wittenstein - Ohio State -9.5 (-110, BetMGM): It’s almost as if Nate and I are in the same betting group chat, because I, too, snagged OSU at this number right when it opened, and I still stand by it. I’ve hate-watched Ohio State almost as long as I’ve watched the teams I love, and the one constant is the Buckeyes’ amazing ability to bounce back (vomits from complimenting Ohio State). We saw it last season after an embarrassing loss to Michigan, as Ohio State responded with a national championship run, including a Rose Bowl dismantling of Oregon. For all of Ryan Day’s faults, of which there are many, he does a good job of getting his team up after a loss. So after their rather regrettable result in Indianapolis in the Big Ten championship game, the Buckeyes should be hungry to show off their skills against a non–Big Ten team. Miami has had a stout end to its season, no doubt, but beating up on the middle management of teams in the ACC won’t match up for a game against one of college football’s premier teams (vomit number 2). Carson Beck hasn’t inspired any confidence that he can thrive against an Ohio State defensive unit that dominated this season, and I’m not sure the Hurricanes’ offense can keep up against that Buckeyes secondary, so let’s take OSU to cover the 9.5 and replicate last year’s bounce back game.
Jacobson - Ohio State -9.5 (-110, BetMGM): This is a bet I took immediately after the matchup was set because I expected the number to climb through -10. My market entry may not have been perfect, but I still like Ohio State to show they are the best team in the sport on New Year’s Eve. I’m especially bullish on the Buckeyes’ defense, which I expect to shut down Hurricanes RB Mark Fletcher Jr., who was the only Miami offensive player to have a big game in the Hurricanes’ 10-3 first-round win at Texas A&M. I believe it’ll be a long night for QB Carson Beck against Matt Patricia’s stellar defensive unit. On the other side of the ball, I expect a much better offensive game plan from Ohio State than what we saw against Indiana in the Big Ten championship and I don’t mind laying a big number here even with the total sitting in the low 40s.
Orange Bowl: Oregon vs. Texas Tech
Fortuna - Texas Tech +2.5 (-105, BetMGM): This is the best game of the quarterfinals. Itt seems as though the Red Raiders are being slept on despite their dominant regular season. Oregon has the QB edge, but the Ducks have looked human against stout defenses: they scored just 13 offensive points against Indiana (No. 4 in total D) and just 16 offensive points against Iowa (No. 6 D). Texas Tech has the nation’s No. 3 overall defense, it’s No. 2 in yards per play and it’s No. 3 in scoring. It leads the nation in takeaways, too. Gimme the Red Raiders.
Wittenstein - Under 52 (-112, BetRivers): Texas Tech has been Team Under this season, mainly due to its incredible defense. Ranking No. 2 in the nation, the Red Raiders allow only 3.9 yards per play, a number that’s dropped to 3.4 yards per play in their last three games. Texas Tech’s defense is elite: No. 4 in 3rd/4th down defensive success rate and No. 1 in defensive quality drive rate, letting just 21 percent of drives reach the 40-yard line. It’s just a different animal. And it’s not like the Ducks lack in the D area, either. They’re top-15 in defensive success rate, and are just a few places down from the Red Raiders on the yards per play allowed list, sitting at fifth in the nation. Oregon has dominated weaker defenses like JMU, Minnesota, and USC, but against a strong team like Iowa, the total was just 34 points. I think we see defenses rule the day and a final score in the mid-40s.
Jacobson - Oregon ML (-130, DraftKings): I like both teams and think either one could realistically win the national title. Oregon was a team I bet against several times in November due to a tough schedule and injuries to key offensive players. However, the Ducks’ depth showed up in wins against Iowa, USC and Washington, and now they’re healthy with WRs Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. back in the lineup. The Red Raiders are led by a strong defense, particularly their front-seven, but I have some uncertainty about their offense given the level of competition they faced in the Big 12. I like Oregon in this matchup and would likely bet the Ducks again if they face Indiana in the semifinals.
Rose Bowl: Alabama vs. Indiana
Fortuna - Ty Simpson under 240.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel): Simpson has failed to reach this number in each of Alabama’s last four games. None of the pass defenses in those four games currently ranks higher than 34th. Indiana’s pass D ranks 18th. And the forecast for Thursday in Pasadena calls for lots of rain. This bet is lining up a little too perfectly, no?
Wittenstein - Indiana -6.5 (-120, Hard Rock): I’m still not certain that people fully grasp just how good Indiana has been this year. Not only have we watched one of the most miraculous program turnarounds in the history of the sport, but that turnaround has produced one of the country’s best teams this year. A team, I should mention, that’s laying less than a touchdown for a game that’s supposed to get Big Ten Weather. Yeah, sign me up. People still see Alabama as a premier, top-of-the-world Nick Saban program. But it’s time to take the crimson-colored glasses off because there are some serious holes in Kalen DeBoer’s squad. If Bama’s defense lapses again like it did in the first half against Oklahoma, the Tide are not getting a comeback chance against this Indiana team. And good luck to a vulnerable Bama defense as it goes against a Heisman-winning QB, the No. 2 team in offensive success rate and No. 4 team in quality drive rate, per CFBGraphs. Plus, Curt Cignetti with a week off to prep is like giving a bank robber the code to the safe. We saw the Hoosiers knock off Oregon on the road after their first bye week and then demolish Purdue 56-3 after their second bye week. Something would have to go pretty wrong for the Hoosiers to falter enough to lose this game, so I’ll ride my alma mater with the spread and light up a Cig as this team covers the 6.5 in Pasadena.
Jacobson - Alabama +4.5 first half (-122, FanDuel): This is the quarterfinal I have the least confidence in from a betting perspective. Seeing Indiana listed as a touchdown favorite over Alabama in a College Football Playoff game is still a shock to the system, but I understand the number given how well-coached the Hoosiers are and given Alabama’s recent struggles. I don’t want to fade Indiana over 60 minutes, but I do see value in backing Alabama to start fast, which the Tide have done a number of times in big games under Kalen DeBoer. I’d wait to place this bet, as I could see the line continuing to rise and creating a better first-half number on the underdog in the Rose Bowl.
Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Georgia
Fortuna - Gunner Stockton under 224.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel): Much like the above Ty Simpson bet, this SEC passing under seems too good to be true. The trend lines say as much, with Stockton going under 200 passing yards in each of his last three games, two of which were in dominant wins. The other was a too-close-for-comfort win against a horrible Georgia Tech defense in which Stockton threw for just 70 yards. I know Stockton lit up Ole Miss the first time around, but the game called for that since he was playing from behind. I expect Georgia to take care of business much earlier in this rematch, leading to a lot less passing late.
Wittenstein - Georgia -6.5 (-107, Caesars): I always like giving a team going through a huge change one game to have its fun. Whether it’s after a big injury or a coaching change, teams typically respond with increased intensity and drive immediately after a big change. That’s what Ole Miss did against Tulane — the Rebels got all their anger and frustration out from the Lane Kiffin situation on the poor, old Green Wave. Now that it’s the game after that high-intensity matchup, I think we see a Rebels team brought back down to earth. Georgia has been playing this season like it’s just been waiting for the CFP, and now that it’s here, we’ll see a well-coached, laser-focused Bulldogs squad facing a team that’ll finally feel its head-coaching absence. This could be the game where Georgia shows its full force — a Bulldogs team that’s been eerily quiet so far, keeping a low profile, is suddenly dangerous. Ole Miss had its fun and showed off its skills, but that comes to an end Thursday night against Georgia.
Jacobson - Georgia -6.5 (-107, Caesars): It was cool to see the atmosphere in Oxford as Ole Miss hosted a College Football Playoff game just weeks after Lane Kiffin left for LSU, overcoming the distractions in a dominant 41-10 win over Tulane. However, I think that result says more about Tulane than Ole Miss, and the Sugar Bowl against Georgia is where the Rebels will truly feel the absence of Kiffin and several other departed coaches. I had doubts about Georgia earlier in the season, but I liked how they closed the year, particularly in wins over Texas and Alabama. The Bulldogs’ offense took a step forward with QB Gunner Stockton under center and Kirby Smart’s young defense has made noticeable strides after a shaky start to the season.
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