CFB Forecast, Playoff edition: You again?
Part III of Kalen DeBoer-Brent Venables headlines a jam-packed opening round
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps — Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson — slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite CFP Round 1 bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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CFB GAME 1 - Alabama at Oklahoma
Fortuna - Alabama ML (-102, Caesars): My pick here is along the same lines of my pick of Alabama to lose to Georgia in the SEC title game: Same-season rematches almost always go to the Game 1 loser, at least between teams that are evenly matched. (See: UGA-Bama in ‘25 and ‘21, Ohio State-Oregon in ‘24, Clemson-Notre Dame in ‘20.) If that historical trend isn’t strong enough, consider that Oklahoma’s postgame win expectancy in its Nov. 15 win in Tuscaloosa was 5 percent. Yes, 5 percent! (Per Bill Connelly.) What are the odds of the Sooners pulling it off again? Better yet, what are the odds of Brent Venables beating Kalen DeBoer three times in two years? The Sooners earned the right to be here and host, but their “big” wins vs. Michigan, at Tennessee and at Alabama did not age nearly as well as we all expected them to. Plus, Alabama is the team that has had to deal with the naysayers who feel as though Notre Dame, and not the Tide, should be in this game. Don’t underestimate that as a motivating factor for the visitors on Friday night, either.
Wittenstein - Alabama +1.5 (-110, Caesars): Call me Taylor Swift because “there’s nothing I do better than revenge (games).” We saw the Tide fall to the Sooners in mid-November in Norman. Ty Simpson understandably had a rough start in a tough road environment and put Bama behind the 8-ball quickly with a first quarter pick-six. This time around, Alabama should be the better team, with no early pick-sixes to get the Sooners going. And look, to be frank, if there’s a club that doesn’t believe in the Oklahoma offense, then I am its leader because the Sooners offense has worse execution than this season of “Stranger Things.” The unit scored 16 points against Alabama last time out, which includes just one actual touchdown. That type of play just isn’t going to cut it this weekend. Bama is coming off an SEC championship loss in what was Georgia’s revenge spot, so I don’t take much from it. Plus, that makes this game a bounce-back spot for the Tide. It’s tough for even great teams to win twice in a row against another good opponent. And while Oklahoma is certainly a good team, the Sooners aren’t great in my eyes and are ripe to fall in a huge revenge spot for the Tide.
Jacobson - Alabama +1.5 (-110, Caesars): My handicap for this game is anchored in what we saw when these teams met on November 15. Oklahoma won 23–21 on the scoreboard, but Alabama clearly controlled the box score, out-gaining the Sooners 406–212 with a 23–12 edge in first downs. The Crimson Tide were undone by a first-quarter pick-six and two fumbles that directly led to 10 more Oklahoma points. The Sooners closed the regular season with home wins over Missouri and LSU behind strong defensive performances to secure a Playoff spot, but I still have serious questions about QB John Mateer and the offense as a whole. Alabama found success throwing the ball in the first meeting and ball security was the difference. If Alabama takes care of the football, I expect the Tide to get the win and move on to the Rose Bowl.
CFP GAME 2 - Miami at Texas A&M
Fortuna - Mark Fletcher over 38.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel): This feels like a great buy-low spot for Fletcher, who had rushed for 66 or more yards in all but one game before suffering a lower-body injury at SMU, costing him the next two games. In his two games since, he’s carried the ball just 16 times for 49 yards. But he’ll have had three weeks between games by the time this one kicks off, and he needs only one long run to go over this total. A&M’s run defense has been vulnerable this season, giving up at least 200 yards on the ground in four different games this season (UTSA, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas).
Wittenstein - Miami 1H +2.5 (-105, BetMGM): This is weirdly a tough spot for Texas A&M. Let me explain. Sure, it’s a home game, but the kickoff time is 11 a.m. local time, which, for a College Football Playoff game, is kinda wild. Kyle Field is tough for any opponent, but it’s a bit less daunting in the sunshine than under the lights. I also really enjoy betting on visiting teams in big road games with morning starts. I like backing the team that’s locked in and ready to play, ready to hit the field early coming from the team hotel rather than rolling out of its own beds. We’ve also seen the Hurricanes’ offense explode since its overtime loss on November 1st to SMU — they’ve averaged the 13th-most points per first half in the country since then. That loss seemed to flip a switch, and I expect a motivated Miami team to show up early against a potentially sleepy Texas A&M.
Jacobson - Miami +3.5 (-112, FanDuel): If I end up betting this game, it would be a small wager on the Hurricanes at +3.5 or better. Backing the coach/QB pairing of Mario Cristobal and Carson Beck isn’t something I’m usually comfortable with, but I don’t believe much separates these two teams. Texas A&M started the season 11–0, yet benefited from a favorable SEC schedule and didn’t beat a conference opponent that finished league play with a winning record. When the Aggies finally stepped up in class in the regular-season finale, they lost at Texas, costing themselves a trip to the SEC championship game and a first-round bye. While Texas A&M does own an impressive win at Notre Dame and fields a strong offense, it’s fair to question the overall team quality given the schedule it navigated. I’ll look to back Miami here and hope Cristobal performs better as an underdog than he typically does when laying points.
CFB GAME 3 - Tulane at Ole Miss
Fortuna - Tulane +18.5 (-110, HardRock Bet): I’ll take a chance on the Green Wave here against an Ole Miss team whose leader is making his head-coaching debut. Sure, Pete Golding has been there for years, but this is undoubtedly a strange situation for all involved on the home side, especially with OC Charlie Weis Jr. remaining in Oxford before heading to LSU whenever the Rebels’ season ends. Ole Miss smoked Tulane 45-10 back in September, but that could breed some overconfidence on Ole Miss’ part. QB Trinidad Chambliss described Golding and ex-coach Lane Kiffin as “totally different dudes,” but I’m not sure if a totally different voice is what the 11-1 Rebels really need in a huge game like this one. It’s all enough to make me think Tulane at least keeps it closer than the experts think. (Shout out to Lee Corso.)
Wittenstein - Ole Miss -17.5 (-104, FanDuel): I try not to overthink a game like this. The loss of Lane Kiffin is a definite factor, but the team he left behind still has incredible talent, and now the extra motivation to show the old coach what he’s missing. Tulane’s head coach Jon Sumrall has his foot halfway out the door to Florida and is fielding a team that, while good this season, could really experience its talent gap in a game like this. Ole Miss steamrolled the Green Wave back in late September by 35 points, and even after all the coaching shuffling, I don’t see a reason why the Rebels won’t just do that again. Keep it simple, folks. Back the Rebels.
Jacobson - Tulane team total under 19.5 (DraftKings, -105): There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding this game given the modern college football calendar. Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall will be on the sideline, but he’s already been named Florida’s head coach and is effectively juggling postseason preparation with laying the groundwork for his new job in Gainesville. On the other side, Ole Miss defensive coordinator Pete Golding was named the Rebels’ permanent head coach after Lane Kiffin’s departure, and this will be his first game in charge of an 11–1 team. The unit I trust most in this matchup is Ole Miss’ defense under Golding, which leads me to bet on the Rebels holding the Green Wave offense below its expectation.
CFP GAME 4 - James Madison at Oregon
Fortuna - Wayne Knight over 18.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM): Did I pick this prop just so I could unironically scream “Newman!” if it doesn’t hit? No, although that is something I would do. To be honest, I lean toward most player prop unders in this game given how JMU likes to play. The Dukes are No. 2 nationally in time of possession and No. 5 in rushing. It doesn’t hurt that it could be raining and in the 30s in Eugene come kickoff, too. But Knight is an exception to most rules, as anyone who has watched JMU play this season knows. He went above this receiving total in nine of the Dukes’ first 10 games before missing it in the last three, but that was because he was busy rushing for 423 yards on 7.8 ypc during that stretch. Oregon’s stout run defense will absolutely key in on Knight and the rest of JMU’s backfield attack, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dukes get a little creative in a house-money type of game and look to deploy Knight in a couple of non-traditional ways. This should be an easy number to hit, provided JMU can have any semblance of offensive success.
Wittenstein - JMU 1H Team Total Over 5.5 (-114, Caesars): Let’s get funky. Don’t act like you don’t want to end Saturday night rooting for the underdog. They don’t even have to win for this to pay off! With an extra week to prep, I’d expect the Dukes to have a few plays up their sleeve that puts them within firing range of the end zone. This is a team playing with nothing to lose, and those teams can often be sneaky dangerous. While the Ducks should dominate in the last 30 minutes, this Dukes squad will use the extra prep time, a can’t-lose attitude and possibly a Ducks team holding back for the second round to give itself a shot at six, or even two field goals, to get us the win.
Jacobson - Oregon -11.5 first half (-106, FanDuel): This is another game where coaching factors need to be considered when handicapping the matchup. James Madison head coach Bob Chesney will be coaching at UCLA next season, in the same conference as Oregon. The Ducks will also be losing both offensive coordinator Will Stein to Kentucky and defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi to California after their playoff run, which could extend to Jan. 19. Despite those factors, I expect a fully focused Oregon team under Dan Lanning, especially after last season’s 41-21 loss to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl as the No. 1 seed. An evening kickoff will be a tough atmosphere for a JMU team that struggled to pull away from Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game. I considered the full game spread here, but feel more comfortable with the first-half number, as I expect the Ducks to get out to a strong start.
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