CFB Forecast: It all comes down to this
Miami vs. Indiana for the natty. Who ya got?
Crushing beers and bets outside of (insert campus bar), our trio of wannabe sharps -- Matt Fortuna, Ben Wittenstein and Nate Jacobson -- slug back various shots each week across college football. Check out their favorite CFP National Title bets below.
*Note all bets are made assuming the juice is paid (e.g. -110 = 1.10 units wagered)
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College Football Playoff National Championship - Indiana vs. Miami
Fortuna - Charlie Becker over 45.5 receiving yards (-115, Bet365): Becker has been one of the most clutch players for Indiana during this remarkable run. The bigger the game, the better he has played, at least in the second half of the season. Becker has gone over this total in six of his last seven games, emerging as one of Fernando Mendoza’s favorite deep threats. (The two are roommates.) I love a bet that could cash on a single play. Plus, Miami’s secondary could be a little vulnerable in the first half without Xavier Lucas, who is serving a targeting suspension from the Fiesta Bowl.
Wittenstein - Indiana Team Total over 27.5 (-117, BetRivers): Look, I’m not going to foolishly step in front of the mammoth freight train that is Indiana. Searching for weaknesses feels like a Bulls fan wishing for competent ownership. You know: pointless. I’m just going to ride the offense, a spot that has seen a TON of success this season both on the field and in our wallets. I’ve highlighted IU’s offensive success all season — top-five in quality drive rate, EPA per rush, and EPA per dropback. That production has translated into 94 combined points in two CFP wins. Of course, Miami’s defense is no slouch, but we saw ways to beat the Hurricanes, with Ole Miss getting almost 400 yards of offense on 6.6 yards per play in the Fiesta Bowl. As sure as the sun rises in the East, you can count on Curt Cignetti and OC Mike Shanahan having Ole Miss–style answers ready to get receivers open. Almost all the teams that have tried to stop IU defensively have gotten burned, so why try and bet against that now? Let’s ride the IU train into the sunset with Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza and the high-powered Hoosier offense!
Jacobson - Under 23.5 first half (-105, BetMGM): I’m done trying to fade Curt Cignetti and Indiana, even though I believe the point spread of Indiana being over a touchdown favorite is inflated against a Miami team that will be “sleeping in their own beds” with this game played at the Hurricanes’ home stadium. Still, there are several ways to attack this matchup that point toward a closer margin, and the clearest angle to me is a lower-scoring game. Miami’s best unit is its defense, so DC Corey Hetherman will need another strong performance like we saw against Texas A&M and Ohio State earlier in the Playoff. I’m expecting Mario Cristobal to lean on OC Shannon Dawson to establish the run early and big games like this often start conservatively. I’ll opt for the first-half under and hope there isn’t an early defensive score like the Hoosiers’ pick-six, which opened their semifinal win.
BONUS TIME (Any additional CFP title game action)
Fortuna - Indiana -0.5 4th quarter (-120, Bet365): I think Indiana wins, but I don’t think the Hoosiers run away from Miami the way they did against Alabama and Oregon in this Playoff. The Hurricanes are too good up front and will make Indiana’s offense earn this across 60 minutes. So I’ll predict Indiana to win a tight one, utilizing a couple of key fourth quarter plays to outscore the Canes and take home the natty. I trust Fernando Mendoza more in crunch time than I do Carson Beck, and I think that bears fruit across the final 15 minutes.
Wittenstein - Indiana alt-spread -13.5 (+145, BetRivers): I like Indiana, so why not bet the Hoosiers big? They’ve absolutely demolished teams thus far in the College Football Playoff, and Curt Cignetti has shown zero tendency to let up while ahead. I truly don’t know how teams are going to be able to stop the Hoosiers, a team that by some metrics is in the same class as the 2019 LSU Tigers and the 2020 Alabama Crimson Tide. They’re a powerhouse. And powerhouses demolish their competition. IU receivers have been getting open with ease, and the team as a whole makes so few mistakes that Miami will likely have to play an almost perfect game to compete. And not to mention defensively, with IU opponents being strangled when they have the ball. I’m more than happy playing with recent history here and taking IU in a National Championship blowout at plus money.
Jacobson - Highest scoring half: 2nd Half (+115, theScore Bet): This prop isn’t available at every sportsbook, but maybe it’ll pop up closer to kickoff in the game props section. It’s a bet I frequently make in the Super Bowl, based on the idea that teams tend to start cautiously with conservative play-calling to limit turnovers and are more likely to punt in borderline fourth-down situations. This game has a Super Bowl feel to it and I can see a slow start before the scoring picks up after halftime. There’s also a path where Curt Cignetti keeps the Hoosiers aggressive late if the outcome is decided, using the stage to send a message to the college football world. That makes the second half appealing at plus money in the final game of the season.
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